by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, and markets cannot agree on the outcome.
  • CME FedWatch puts Fed rate hike odds at 31.5%, with 68.5% pricing a hold.
  • It trades near $63,683, down 1.87% over 24 hours, with a market value of roughly $1.28 trillion.
  • The unusual feature is the disagreement, not the direction.

What Happened

The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, and markets cannot agree on the outcome. CME FedWatch puts Fed rate hike odds at 31.5%, with 68.5% pricing a hold.

Market Context

Bitcoin (BTC) has drifted lower into the event. It trades near $63,683, down 1.87% over 24 hours, with a market value of roughly $1.28 trillion.

That churn is the story. The Kobeissi Letter noted that nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 arrived with roughly 99% consensus already priced.

What the June Meeting Already Told Markets

The June 17 decision was unanimous. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved its statement by a 12 to 0 vote. It held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.

“The Committee will deliver price stability,” read an excerpt in the FOMC statement.

The June inflation report argues against one. Consumer prices fell 0.4% on the month, the largest one-month drop since April 2020.

“Particular price shocks happen to particular prices that we don’t have control over,” Warsh said.

Why It Matters

Kevin Warsh, sworn in as chair in May, removed the tool that produced that certainty. He has abandoned forward guidance, so the committee no longer signals its vote.

TD Securities expects Hammack and Logan to dissent again on Wednesday.

Annual inflation cooled to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, slowed to 2.6% from 2.9%.

Details

Why Are Fed Rate Hike Odds Stuck Near 30%?

The unusual feature is the disagreement, not the direction. Futures have swung across a 10-point band inside a single month.

The wording mattered more than the vote. Warsh cut the statement to three short paragraphs and stripped out any hint of future easing.

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Unity is recent, though. At Jerome Powell’s final meeting in April, four officials dissented. That was the largest split since October 1992.

Three of them objected from the hawkish side. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Dallas’s Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari opposed language tilted toward cuts. Governor Stephen Miran wanted a cut outright.

Does the Inflation Data Support a Hike?

Shelter costs rose just 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain since January 2021. Energy fell 5.7% over the month.

The year-over-year picture is harsher. Energy is still up 15.7%, and gasoline has climbed 26.7% since June 2025.

Warsh has treated that gap as noise. He addressed it in Senate testimony on July 15.

Crude has since cooled further. Brent slid back toward $86 after Washington paused strikes on Iran, weakening the case for tightening now.

Warsh also lacks the votes. CNBC reported that three or four of the twelve voting members are ready to push for an immediate increase.

Every economist in a Reuters survey this month called for a hold, a rare case of economists and traders split.