Iran War Nears End As Waller Floats 50-Bps Hike And Bitcoin Treasury Odds Jump

What Happened

The three developments put geopolitics, monetary policy and Bitcoin adoption attentions being rekindled. Trump’s latest comments could ease concerns about prolonged military escalation, while Waller’s warning raises questions about borrowing costs. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is attracting attention from prediction markets betting on a possible government purchase.

Waller Raises Prospect of a 50-Basis-Point December Hike

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has introduced another complication for investors. Just last night, Waller said the Fed could consider a 50-basis-point increase in December if October inflation data show persistent pressure in core prices.

The possibility matters for Bitcoin because higher interest rates generally make speculative investments less attractive. Investors may favor cash and yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise, and liquidity becomes more expensive.

Kalshi odds for a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year have climbed to 13%. The market reflects speculation that Washington could move beyond its existing Bitcoin reserve framework and acquire additional BTC.

Market Context

President Donald Trump says the Iran War is effectively over, but Bitcoin and financial markets face another potentially turbulent week. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has warned that stubborn inflation could justify a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders have raised the odds of a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year to 13%.

Oil prices follow with a decline. Brent crude fell 5.85% last night before slipping another 1.7% to around $90.99 per barrel this morning. The retreat reflects easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East.

How could it affect crypto? With the Iran war ending, cheaper oil could offer some relief for Bitcoin by reducing inflationary pressure and giving the Federal Reserve more room to eventually lower interest rates. Energy prices influence Bitcoin primarily through inflation expectations, monetary policy, and market liquidity.

Before Trump’s statement, the conflict had already created significant pressure across energy markets. Higher fuel prices have contributed to inflation concerns, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring price growth back toward its 2% target.

An end to the Iran War could remove one important source of energy-market uncertainty.

The Iran War adds another layer to that calculation. Even if military tensions ease, energy prices and inflation could keep the Fed under pressure.

Despite the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, prediction markets are pricing in a growing possibility of direct US government Bitcoin buying.

The project has already raised more than $33.2 million in presale funding, with HYPER currently priced at just $0.0136. Its testnet explorer is now live, giving users an early look at network activity. The ecosystem is designed to support Bitcoin transfers, decentralized finance, payments, and smart contracts, potentially unlocking new uses for BTC liquidity.

HYPER holders can also access advertised staking rewards of up to 35% APY through the presale. The token has a fixed supply of 21 billion, with allocations covering development, treasury, marketing, community rewards, and exchange listings.

Why It Matters

Trump told reporters on Monday that the Iran War was “militarily effectively over,” suggesting Washington sees little immediate need for further military action. Speaking at the White House after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Trump said negotiations were moving in a positive direction. He also suggested that an agreement could bring the conflict to an end fairly soon.

He warned that delivering only a 25-basis-point increase could undermine the Fed’s credibility if core inflation remains stubbornly high. However, Waller currently leans toward a smaller increase if inflation improves.

Details

Trump Says Iran War Is Effectively Over as Negotiations Gain Momentum

However, Washington has not completely ruled out further strikes. Trump said American forces remained ready to respond if circumstances changed, keeping some uncertainty around the negotiations.

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A 50-basis-point move would represent two standard quarter-point increases delivered in a single meeting. It would also show that policymakers remain prepared to prioritize inflation control over easing financial conditions.

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US Treasury Bitcoin Purchase Odds Climb on Kalshi

Bitcoin’s growing institutional ambitions are also creating interest in infrastructure designed to expand what BTC can actually do. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) is developing a Bitcoin Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). The network aims to bring Solana-style transaction speeds, low fees, and near-instant finality to Bitcoin while anchoring settlement to its underlying blockchain.

Its planned November 26 presale conclusion is approaching, leaving buyers with a narrowing window before the next stage of the project.