by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • One week could decide what your stocks, your Bitcoin (BTC), and your dollars are worth by Christmas.
  • From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meets, inflation data lands, and $11 billion in Bitcoin bets expire.
  • A month ago, traders thought a rate hike this week was likely.
  • Yet almost nobody on Wall Street thinks the Fed is done.

What Happened

It also decides where big money goes. When safe savings pay more, fewer investors want to gamble on tech stocks or crypto.

That matters far beyond Tokyo. Investors have long borrowed cheap yen to buy assets elsewhere, including crypto. As BeInCrypto reported, rising Japanese rate expectations could force those trades to unwind.

Market Context

Can Thursday’s Inflation Data Decide Whether Markets Rally or Retreat?

Thursday morning brings the number the Fed trusts most. The PCE price index tracks how fast prices rise for what Americans buy.

Economists expect prices to be 3.7% higher than a year ago, per MarketWatch. The Fed’s goal is 2%. It is also moving the wrong way, up from 3.4% in August.

Bond markets are already flashing warnings. The 10-year Treasury yield, which steers mortgage rates, closed near 5% on Friday, per Mortgage News Daily. It hit 5.33% on October 14.

Europe’s central bank meets Thursday. In a Reuters poll cited by Admiral Markets, 70 of 73 economists expect it to hold at 2.50%. Most expect a hike in December.

Why It Matters

One week could decide what your stocks, your Bitcoin (BTC), and your dollars are worth by Christmas. From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meets, inflation data lands, and $11 billion in Bitcoin bets expire.

A month ago, traders thought a rate hike this week was likely. Today, they put the odds below one in 10. Yet almost nobody on Wall Street thinks the Fed is done.

Why Does a Likely Fed Pause Still Matter for December?

On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to sit still. CME FedWatch puts the chance of no change at 90.6%. A month ago, a hike was the favorite at 64.2%.

December is a different story. FedWatch gives a December hike 68% odds, according to CME FedWatch Tool. In a Reuters poll, all 100 economists surveyed expect one.

The economy is not cooling to help. Growth for the July to September quarter is expected at 3.2%, up from 2.2% the quarter before.

History shows the stakes. In May and June, Bitcoin slid from about $82,000 to the low $60,000s as rate-cut hopes faded, BeInCrypto reported.

How Could Friday’s $11 Billion Options Expiry Move Bitcoin?

Details

In September, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. The Fed’s September hike put its key rate between 3.75% and 4.00%.

That number touches almost everything. It shapes what people pay on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

So why wait? Yardeni Research points to the calendar, not the data.

“We believe the committee should hike on Wednesday but won’t because the midterm elections are so close,” the researchers indicated.

Americans vote in the midterms on November 3. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces reporters at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

A hotter number would strengthen the case for a December hike. A cooler one would weaken it.

Here is the twist. When the Fed finally hiked in September, Bitcoin went up, from about $75,350 to above $76,100 within minutes.

Are Europe and Japan Adding to the Pressure?

Japan’s central bank decides Friday. Its 1.25% rate is already the highest since 1995.