Analyst With 80% Success Rate Names 3 Energy Stocks To Watch

What Happened

US oil refiners are booming, and Wall Street’s 10th-ranked analyst just named three energy stocks to watch to play the run. The margin refiners earn by turning crude into fuel hit a record, and none of his three picks are the oil majors everyone knows.

That analyst is Raymond James’ Justin Jenkins, who has an 80% success rate.

Delek US Holdings (NYSE: DK)

Market Context

He reiterated Buy on three mid-cap refiners, so BeInCrypto checked the money flow behind each to see which call holds up.

Jenkins reiterated a Buy with a $70 price target on July 13. One more bank leans bullish. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $73 on July 17.

Therefore, Delek offers the cleanest setup. Jenkins’ $70 target sits about 4% above the recent price near $67, and Goldman’s $73 is the more bullish case.

HF Sinclair is the largest and steadiest of the trio, spanning refining, marketing, and renewables. Yet its bull case looks the most stretched.

The stock’s 99% run this year pushed its price past several targets.

However, the chart flashes a warning. CMF peaked in early May. As DINO kept making higher highs into July, money flow failed to follow. This bearish divergence, now below the 0.51 level that capped it in May, suggests the buying is fading.

So the reward looks thin for now. Jenkins’ $95 target implies only about 4% upside from the recent price near $92, and the divergence warns that momentum could stall.

Par Pacific is the best performer, up about 129% this year. Its niche markets in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies keep its fuel insulated, which helped it ride the same margin wave.

That rare alignment marks $85 as a shared ceiling. It also caps the upside, since the price near $80 already sits close.

Why It Matters

The main risk is the crack spread itself, since that’s where refiners make their money. Because Delek leans so heavily on refining, a sharp drop in it would hit the stock harder than the more diversified names, and spreads this wide rarely last.

Details

Delek is the most refining-focused of the three, with little diversification to steady other energy stocks on the list. That makes it the most direct bet on the record crack spread, the gap between what refiners pay for crude oil and what they earn on gasoline and diesel.

That spread hit a record near $59 a barrel in July, nearly triple where it started the year. So Delek can print cash even if crude goes nowhere.

JPMorgan, however, raised its number to $62 (already hit) but stayed on Hold. The stock is already up about 127% this year.

Meanwhile, the chart backs the call. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling, broke out of a falling channel in late June.

It then pushed above its early-March peak in mid-July. That shows large buyers accumulating just as Jenkins made his call.

HF Sinclair (NYSE: DINO)

Here, Jenkins is the outlier. He reiterated a Buy and a Street-high $95 target on July 13, while much of Wall Street sat on Hold. Evercore initiated coverage with a Hold rating, while Barclays and JPMorgan maintained neutral ratings.

A close above 0.51 would ease the concern.

Still, not everyone is cautious. Options desks flagged fresh January call buying on the stock.

Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE: PARR)

This time, the banks agree on this energy stock to watch. Jenkins lifted his target to $85 on July 13, matching JPMorgan, while Mizuho reiterated Buy at $80 (already hit).