The short answer to the question German readers have been asking for months has been sitting in a European supervisory document since September 10, 2026: the marketing and sale of event contracts in the EU generally requires an EU authorisation, and the largest prediction market platforms do not currently hold one. That is how the European Securities and Markets Authority puts it in its TRV Risk Monitor No. 2/2026, which devotes a chapter of its own to prediction markets for the first time.