The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 94.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its April 2026 FOMC meeting, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause in monetary policy that continues to shape risk asset positioning across crypto markets. The CME FedWatch Tool, which derives probabilities from federal funds futures contracts, assigns just a 5.2% combined probability to any rate change at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate target range stands at 4.25%-4.50%, where it has remained since December 2024.