Kimi Antonelli heads into Baku with an 81-point lead and nine rounds left. Prediction markets price the Mercedes driver as a near-certain champion, and the arithmetic explains why. F1 championship prediction markets sell Yes or No shares on each driver to win the 2026 title, priced in cents as a probability. Once the FIA confirms the champion, shares on that driver pay out a dollar each and shares on the rest of the grid lose their value.