Will President Trump Pardon Ftx’s Sam Bankman-Fried Next?

What Happened

While the odds may seem low, the profiles of the crypto figures Trump has pardoned so far could make clemency for SBF appear more plausible.

In 2015, he was convicted on multiple counts, including narcotics distribution, money laundering, computer hacking, and operating a continuing criminal enterprise. He was ultimately sentenced to two life terms plus 40 years without the possibility of parole.

FTX misused hundreds of millions, if not billions, in customer funds, resulting in widespread investor and lender losses and the collapse of one of the crypto industry’s largest exchanges.

Market Context

Voters on popular prediction market Polymarket are already placing their bets that FTX exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple counts of fraud, may be next in line.

In the past five hours, several polls on prediction markets saw the odds of SBF being released from custody before the end of this year surge from 4% to 16%.

Meanwhile, SBF’s parents have been actively lobbying for his release on Capitol Hill, further boosting his prospects.

Why It Matters

This latest development has sparked speculation over whether Sam Bankman-Fried could be next.

What’s clear is that Trump’s latest pardon has sparked speculation about who might be next to benefit.

Trump’s pardon of CZ may seem less surprising when viewed alongside his earlier decision to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht just two days after taking office, especially considering the far more serious charges Ulbricht faced.

Details

US President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao marks the second major act of clemency toward a prominent crypto figure since he took office. And it has been less than a year.

Applause, Alarm, and a Surge in Speculation

The news of Trump’s pardoning of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) today has caused various reactions, ranging from applause to alarm. While some crypto community members welcomed the news, critics raised red flags about potential conflicts of interest.

A Tale of Two Pardons

Through Silk Road, Ulbricht facilitated anonymous transactions of illicit goods using Bitcoin.

During Ulbricht’s sentencing, the judge explicitly justified a life term, citing the scale of the drug trade that was born out of Silk Road, along with the indirect deaths that it caused.

By contrast, CZ pleaded guilty to a single count of violating the Bank Secrecy Act and other regulatory non-compliance. In April 2024, a court sentenced him to four months in federal prison.

Though serious, the harm caused by CZ’s crimes involved regulatory failures rather than direct theft of customer funds.

Considering the outcomes of both trials, the scale of SBF’s crimes falls somewhere in the middle.

SBF’s Crimes and the Politics of Clemency

A jury sentenced Sam Bankman-Fried in March 2024 on multiple charges, including wire fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy. The scope of his wrongdoing was transcendental.

To a certain degree, SBF’s sentencing was considered lenient. Prosecutors originally sought a 40 to 50-year prison sentence for his conviction.

Nevertheless, while the financial damage caused by SBF was immense, many courts have regarded his crimes as less severe than Ulbricht’s.

The collapse of FTX had vast economic repercussions, but Silk Road’s activities extended into violent crimes, organized trafficking, and drug distribution, posing a far greater threat to public safety.

With Ulbricht’s pardon setting a precedent, SBF’s chances of receiving clemency from Trump appear stronger. Combined with the President’s effort to position himself as a crypto ally, the move fits within a broader political strategy.