Why The Copper Squeeze May Reward This Mining Stock More Than Nvidia

What Happened

For investors weighing gold, silver, or copper, the metal with the clearest AI tailwind may be the one already in a squeeze. Clear $68, and the shovel may out-run the chips for a while.

Market Context

The largest US copper miner trades near $66.50 after a sharp year-to-date run, its chart is showing a bullish continuation pattern that points toward $87, and Wall Street still rates it a Strong Buy. Behind the setup sits a simple idea, that the AI boom needs far more copper than the market can supply.

S&P Global and the International Copper Study Group both name AI and electrification as the force pushing the market into a structural deficit, and the same rising copper demand is spilling into digital-asset markets too. The near-term spike also owes to US tariffs and Chinese smelter cuts, so copper is tight now for tactical reasons and getting tighter for a strategic one. That strategic driver is AI, and the producers who own the supply are positioned to gain.

Among copper stocks, Freeport is the purest large-cap way to own that supply. It is the biggest US copper producer, and its first-half net income rose 65% year over year, driven by its US mines, as copper firmed.

Wall Street is firmly onside. TipRanks data shows a Strong Buy, built on 10 Buy and 3 Hold ratings with no Sells, and an average 12-month target of $75.33, about 13% above the current price, with a high call of $82.

The crowded side of the market, meanwhile, has started to cool. After leading the market all year, semiconductors have begun pulling back from their highs. The leader, Nvidia, was seen flashing bearish chart signals and was even overtaken by AMD on money flow. Also, on August 14 the chip names led the market lower with Broadcom off more than 5%.

The technical setup backs the story. Freeport ran about 27% from its July 17 low to a peak on August 10. It then drifted into a tight, falling consolidation. The selling volume has been fading now, which resembles the classic conditions of a bull flag and pole.

Why It Matters

A simple BeInCrypto proprietary gauge of copper miners against big tech makes the turn visible. It bottomed in mid-July, then crossed above its trend line and has held a rotation-into-miners signal through August.

On the panel, green up-arrows mark each flip into the miners and red down-arrows each flip back to tech, and after months of red-tinted chop the signal has stayed green, right as the copper squeeze intensified.

Analyst’s View: The case for copper stocks is certainly strong, with the FCX getting the Wall Street nod. The Strong Buy and the roughly 13% path to the average target are the best validations. Yet, the $87 figure is the chart’s stretch target. The honest risks are that part of this squeeze is traders front-running US copper tariffs. Copper is deeply cyclical and the whole thesis needs Freeport to clear $68 first.

Details

As an AI-fueled supply squeeze grips copper, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is emerging as the standout among copper stocks.

What Is Driving the Squeeze?

The squeeze is severe and current. Copper hit an all-time high on COMEX on August 12, while the London Metal Exchange front-month spread blew out to a $370-a-ton premium, the widest since 2021, with inventories down for 42 straight days.

The demand side is where AI enters. A single one-gigawatt AI data center needs roughly 50,000 tonnes of copper, and the power grid built to feed the AI data center boom needs even more, which is why data centers alone are projected to add hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fresh demand a year.

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Why Freeport Leads the Copper Stocks

Miners also carry operating leverage, which means a 10% rise in copper can lift profits far more, because mining costs stay largely fixed while revenue climbs. That is why a metal squeeze tends to reward the digger more than the tech giant that has to buy the metal.

What Do Analysts Say About Freeport Stock?

The recent moves lean bullish, with Barclays lifting its target to $82 and Stifel to $80 in late July. JPMorgan’s Bill Peterson, a top-ranked analyst with a strong track record on the stock, keeps a Buy at $77. Big money is positioning too. The copper-miner ETF COPX has quadrupled in assets in six months on heavy inflows, a sign funds are crowding into the group.

Is Money Rotating From Big Tech to Miners?

This is the part that makes the timing interesting. On August 4, copper rallied on Chinese demand and supply fears. Additionally, the copper ETF CPER rose about 1.3%. Yet, the miners ran far harder. Southern Copper jumped 4.98% and Freeport gained 5.75% that day.

Freeport has moved in step, climbing more than 10% over the past month. In comparison, Copper Futures have just gained a modest 6%.

What Does Freeport’s Chart Say?

A daily close above $68 would confirm the breakout and, on the measured move, project the roughly 27% pole toward $87. The floor is $65, and a slip below $63 would break the flag and cool the setup toward $58.