When Will Altcoin Season Start? Fed Rate Cut Fuels Bitcoin, But Ethereum Still Lagging

What Happened

The crypto market edged higher today after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, fueling optimism across risk assets. Bitcoin price today is trading around $117,000, while Ethereum holds steady near $4,600. The broader crypto market cap rose modestly, with major altcoins mixed but stable.

“Retail really doesn’t care… we just have the same investors from four years ago. This cycle is more ETF-driven, institutionally driven,” Cowen observed.

Market Context

Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen described the current cycle as “one of the most boring bull markets we’ve ever seen.” He highlighted why history suggests that October 2025 could be decisive for Bitcoin, with a potential cycle top forming between October and December.

According to him, a true altcoin season, the kind seen in late 2017 and 2021, requires Ethereum to break and hold durable all-time highs. Until ETH reclaims its 21-week EMA and rallies into sustained highs, the market will remain Bitcoin-led.

Cowen pointed out a consistent historical trend: Bitcoin dominance bottoms in September and rises sharply in October.

“Bitcoin dominance normally reverses course in September and then explodes higher in October,” he said, adding that this pattern strengthens the case for a Bitcoin-driven month ahead.

While Wall Street capital has fueled Bitcoin’s climb, smaller traders remain cautious, still waiting for altcoin profits.

Daily Get real-time crypto news, market insights, and blockchain updates.

Get real-time crypto news, market insights, and blockchain updates.

Weekly Stay updated with major trends, funding news, and price analysis.

Stay updated with major trends, funding news, and price analysis.

Monthly Receive a detailed report with market analysis and expert predictions.

Receive a detailed report with market analysis and expert predictions.

Why It Matters

Looking ahead, Cowen suggests a conservative allocation focused on risk-adjusted returns:

He expects Bitcoin to outperform altcoins in the near term, with Ethereum taking the lead only if it breaks out into sustained new highs.

Details

The post When Will Altcoin Season Start? FED Rate Cut Fuels Bitcoin, but Ethereum Still Lagging appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Analysts note the short-term tone is constructive, supported by ETF inflows and macro easing, but caution remains as traders wait for a clear trigger to unlock the next phase of the bull cycle.

“Normally, cycles end in Q4 of the post-halving year,” Cowen explained, referencing previous tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived Yet

Despite growing calls for an altcoin rally, Cowen stressed that the timeline is being misunderstood.

“It was first Bitcoin to ETH, and now there’s a rotation back to Bitcoin. The altseason calls are premature,” he said.

October Is Bitcoin’s Month

Institutions Driving, Retail Still Missing

Another defining feature of this cycle is the lack of retail mania.

Q4 Strategy: Conservative Allocation

“Around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH—about an 80/20 split,” he said.

Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.