by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • The token is down nearly 7% in the past 24 hours and about 5% over the past month, reflecting growing weakness across the market.
  • Historically, February has been a difficult month for the XRP price.
  • Data shows its median February return stands at −8.12%, with an average decline of −5%.
  • In 2025, the token fell by almost 29% during the same period.

What Happened

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Vasily Shilov, Chief Business Development Officer at SwapSpace, said seasonal patterns still matter but are no longer decisive on their own.

“ETF flows are currently more reliable directional drivers,” he explained.

Market Context

XRP is entering February under pressure. The token is down nearly 7% in the past 24 hours and about 5% over the past month, reflecting growing weakness across the market. Historically, February has been a difficult month for the XRP price. Data shows its median February return stands at −8.12%, with an average decline of −5%. In 2025, the token fell by almost 29% during the same period.

Why the Price Pullback Was Expected

XRP continues to trade inside a long-term descending channel on the two-day chart. A falling channel is a bearish structure where price makes lower highs and lower lows within parallel trendlines.

Since mid-2025, this pattern has kept rallies capped and pushed prices steadily lower. As historically weak February approaches, XRP is drifting closer to the channel’s lower boundary, increasing downside risk.

Between October 2 and January 5, XRP formed a lower high in price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high. RSI measures momentum, showing whether buying or selling pressure is strengthening.

Between October 10 and January 29, the XRP price printed a lower low (active at press time) while RSI is attempting to form a higher low. This creates the basis for a bullish divergence, which can signal trend exhaustion.

The next 2-day XRP price candle must form above $1.71, confirming the lower low price setup

While the XRP price trends lower, capital flow data paints a more complex picture.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks institutional and large-wallet buying pressure, has been rising between January 5 and January 25, even as the price fell. This forms a bullish divergence.

Shilov said that January’s ETF volatility reflects broader macro caution rather than structural weakness in XRP demand.

Why It Matters

This year, technical and on-chain signals suggest similar risks are building. At the same time, selective accumulation and early momentum indicators hint that recovery is still possible. Here is what the data shows.

“Range-bound movement is the most likely outcome if macro clarity does not emerge,” he also added.

This mismatch is called hidden bearish divergence. It often signals that upside strength is fading before a correction begins. That signal flashed in early January and was followed by a nearly 30% decline.

For this signal to confirm:

Money Flow And Whale Activity Show Mixed Signals

It suggests that larger, possibly institutional players have been accumulating XRP quietly during the pullback.

Details

This technical weakness was not sudden, though.

Now, a new setup is forming.

RSI must remain above 32.83

If both conditions are met, downside momentum weakens and rebound potential improves. If they fail, the bearish channel remains in control.

ETF flow data supports this trend. Although January’s overall ETF flows remain net negative due to heavy outflows on January 21, net inflows have improved steadily toward the month-end. Recent green bars show renewed interest from institutional channels.