What To Expect From Xrp Price In December 2025

What Happened

December History And ETF Momentum For XRP: A Mixed Bag?

At first glance, December looks like a strong month for XRP, with an average gain of about 69.6%. But the median return is –3.16%, showing that the +818% surge in 2017 inflated the long-term average.

A more realistic comparison comes from recent years, with a gain of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.

Market Context

XRP price enters December after a weak November, with the token down nearly 13% for the month. December has often appeared strong on paper due to the 2017 outlier, but recent years have shown much tamer returns.

With ETF inflows rising, long-term holders selling, and XRP trading near a key resistance zone, traders want to know if December can offer a cleaner setup. This analysis looks at XRP’s seasonal history, on-chain behavior, and the levels that matter most.

“December is likely to look very different for XRP this year, mainly because institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the back of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional interest and capital from the outset,” he said.

“ETF inflow sustainability will now likely be the major tailwind for XRP’s price action in December,” he believes

“If the broader market environment weakens further and ETF flows reverse, XRP will likely follow BTC and ETH movements and retest $2”, he said.

This is the exact area that has acted as resistance earlier. Even if ETF inflows remain strong, the XRP price still needs to break through this wall for a clean bullish trend to form.

Together, the long-term holder distribution and the heavy cost-basis cluster explain why the XRP price in December may need a significant push to gain momentum.

XRP Price In December: Key Levels And The Most Realistic Scenario

Why It Matters

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes this December could behave differently because institutional demand is now active through ETFs. He told BeInCrypto:

On-Chain Signals Aren’t The Most Bullish

These changes may seem small, but they matter because these groups hold a significant share of the circulating supply. Their selling weakens any upside attempt.

The cost basis heatmap reinforces the same risk. It shows the strongest supply cluster between $2.445 and $2.460, where about 1.749 billion XRP sits.

Details

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November 2025 has been weak. XRP is down almost 13%, which makes traders doubt whether the positive December seasonality still applies.

He also noted that XRP is already on a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling more than $640 million and added:

Youssef, however, still remains cautious. He warns:

Together, the mixed December history and the fresh ETF momentum show that XRP’s December depends heavily on whether institutional demand continues.

XRP’s on-chain picture does not fully support a strong December yet. Long-term holders — especially those in the 1–3 year group — continue to reduce their balances.

This data comes from HODL Waves, which shows how supply is spread across different holding periods. Over the past month, the 1–2 year cohort dropped from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the 2–3 year cohort moved from 14.80% to 14.251%.

Ray also warned about this behavior. He said:

“Long-term holders still control a disproportionate share of the circulating supply… XRP can record substantial gains in December only if institutional demand remains strong enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders,” he mentioned.