by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • SpaceX is set to price the largest IPO in history next week, at a valuation near $1.77 trillion.
  • Its own filings show a company that was profitable until the xAI merger turned it into a loss-making company.
  • The financial statements tell a more complicated story about what investors are actually buying.
  • At $135 per share, the offering values SpaceX at roughly 94 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.

What Happened

The roadshow leans on artificial intelligence. The financial statements tell a more complicated story about what investors are actually buying.

Profitable launch services and Starlink are funding that buildout. The recent Anthropic compute deal and the new Google contract may ease the strain, though either party can cancel both on 90 days’ notice.

The offering also reserves up to 30% for retail buyers, roughly triple a typical mega-IPO. That structure has raised investor questions before IPO about who absorbs shares from early backers.

Market Context

SpaceX is set to price the largest IPO in history next week, at a valuation near $1.77 trillion. Its own filings show a company that was profitable until the xAI merger turned it into a loss-making company.

The Valuation Rests on a Market that Barely Exists Yet

The filing pins most of the case on a $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM). AI accounts for $26.5 trillion of that figure, including $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.

What the document does not detail is how the company captures that market against Google, OpenAI, and Microsoft. Some analysts argue SpaceX is worth far less on current earnings.

Per-user economics moved the other way. Average revenue per user fell about 23%, from $99 a month in 2023 to $66, as Starlink expanded into cheaper markets.

The open question is whether $1.77 trillion is the right price for a company still proving its biggest segment.

Why It Matters

None of this is hidden. The risks sit in the filing, alongside profitability rules that have already prompted index exclusion concerns.

Details

At $135 per share, the offering values SpaceX at roughly 94 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Research firm Morningstar has called that close to twice fair value.

SpaceX describes the opportunity in unusually bold terms.

“We believe we have identified the largest actionable TAM in human history.”

The xAI Merger Flipped Profit into Deepening Losses

In 2024, before the deal, SpaceX earned $791 million in net income. After the all-stock xAI merger closed in February, the 2025 result swung to a $4.94 billion net loss.

The company then posted a $4.28 billion first quarter loss in 2026. Its accumulated deficit has reached $41.3 billion, and the AI unit alone lost $6.36 billion from operations last year.

Supporters counter that Starlink remains highly profitable on its own and that the compute contracts add tens of billions in visible revenue.

They also point to the reusable-rocket record as evidence Musk delivers on hard targets.

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Strong Headline Numbers Hide Softer Trends

Starlink looks like the safest part of the story. Subscribers more than doubled to 10.3 million in the year to March 2026.

Governance adds another wrinkle. Musk holds about 42% of the equity but 85.1% of the voting power, and SpaceX will claim controlled-company status after listing.

The post What SpaceX Downplays in Its $1.77 Trillion IPO Filing appeared first on BeInCrypto.