'Uptober' Begins With Bitcoin, Gold Rising: Crypto Daybook Americas

What Happened

The U.S. government shutdown could lead to economic data delays, which are compounded by looming tariffs on various items. This has seemingly seen investors move away from the country and into alternative stores of value.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep cutting interest rates this month, with Polymarket traders weighing an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut. That figure is near 95% in the CME’s Fedwatch tool. Lower interest rates could make risk assets, which include cryptocurrencies, more appetizing for investors.

“Unlike previous years, this Uptober will see more targeted inflows, which could be a breakout moment in accelerating Bitcoin DeFi, as investors will want to do more with their Bitcoin holdings; transforming it from a static store-of-value into a yield-bearing asset class,” he added.

Indeed, bitcoin exposure coupled with yield appears to be becoming a new trend. Just this morning Swiss digital bank Sygnym launched a new BTC Alpha Fund, aiming to generate yield on bitcoin without reducing exposure to the cryptocurrency’s price movements.

Market Context

Bitcoin (BTC) moved higher amid the U.S. government shutdown and its up roughly 3% in the last 24 hours to $116,400. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index (CD20) rose 3.5%.

Equities markets excluding the U.S. also moved higher, even as traders remain cautious over the shutdown. Europe’s STOXX 50 is up 0.3% in today’s session, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%. Futures on the S&P 500 are, however, down 0.55% while on the Nasdaq they’re down 0.64%.

That uncertainty has seen the price of gold rise 3.75% in the past week to now hover around $3,890 per ounce. Spot crypto ETFs drew in more than $550 million in net inflows on Sept. 30, with spot bitcoin ETFs representing the lion’s share of that figure.

Institutional involvement has also deepened amid the changing monetary policy. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) overtook Deribit to become the top venue for bitcoin options trading by open interest, now near $38 billion.

While traditional markets are likely to see lower volatility due the upcoming data vacuum from the government shutdown, crypto market see a wave of spot ETF decisions in the near future to look forward to.

Why It Matters

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The flight to alternative assets is occurring against a favorable macroeconomic backdrop.

Details

“We have seen the convergence of both institutional backing and maturation across the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin is more embedded in the foundations of global finance, and institutional interest is at an all-time high,” Dom Harz, co-foudner of Bitcoin DeFi gateway BOB, told CoinDesk.

The SEC is scheduled to make decisions on a total of 16 spot crypto ETF applications this month. Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's week-ahead note.

Crypto

Nothing scheduled. MacroOct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change Est. 50K. Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7). Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3). Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets” Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2). Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled.

Macro

Oct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change Est. 50K. Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7). Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3). Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49. Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets” Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2). Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled.

Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7).

Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3).

Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52.

Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.

Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets”

Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2).

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Nothing scheduled.