by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Bitcoin extended its rally into October, breaking above $117,000 for the first time since mid-September as fresh U.S.
  • labor market data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  • The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped more than 4% on the day, decisively shattering the $115,000 resistance zone.
  • It marked the third decline in the past four months, indicating clear signs of economic weakness.

What Happened

The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped more than 4% on the day, decisively shattering the $115,000 resistance zone.

It marked the third decline in the past four months, indicating clear signs of economic weakness.

Job openings rose by just 19,000 in August to 7.208 million, still near their lowest since January 2021. The three-month average fell to 7.26 million, a 4.5-year low and below pre-pandemic levels.

Market Context

Bitcoin extended its rally into October, breaking above $117,000 for the first time since mid-September as fresh U.S. labor market data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Labor Market Weakness Reignites Rate Cut Odds at 99%

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin entering Q4 with conditions supportive of a rally. By reclaiming the Trader’s Realized Price at $116K, Bitcoin has re-entered the bull phase of its cycle indicator.

From a high-timeframe perspective, Bitcoin’s structure aligns with Wyckoff accumulation theory and broader macro liquidity cycles.

Why It Matters

The move came after the Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a U.S.-based payroll and HR management company, reported a surprise loss of 32,000 private payrolls in September, versus expectations for a gain of 45,000.

The disappointing data have sharply shifted monetary policy expectations.

A dovish Fed is widely viewed as a tailwind for Bitcoin, weakening the dollar and driving demand for risk assets.

CryptoQuant estimates that these catalysts could expand Bitcoin’s potential Q4 target range toward $160,000–$200,000.

This suggests Bitcoin remains early in a larger bullish expansion phase, with pullbacks likely to serve as healthy corrections rather than the start of a deeper reversal.

Details

Meanwhile, the job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio dropped to 0.98, its weakest reading since April 2021.

That means there are now 157,000 more unemployed Americans than job vacancies, the widest gap since March 2021.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 99% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.

This aligns with Bitcoin’s historical seasonality.

October, November, and December have consistently delivered strong returns, with “Uptober” often kicking off a year-end rally.

Historical Patterns Align: Will Q4 Deliver Bitcoin’s Next Mega Rally?

Spot Bitcoin demand has grown steadily since July, now running at a 62,000 BTC monthly growth rate. Such sustained demand was also present during Q4 rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024.

Whale holdings reinforce the bullish picture.

Large Bitcoin addresses are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC, compared to 255,000 in Q4 2024, 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020, and a contraction of 197,000 in 2021.

The monetary policy shift in January 2024 marked the beginning of an accumulation range, while the April 6 “spring” low provided the foundation for the current uptrend.

Within this structure, levels at $106,400 and $125,600 are identified as automatic reaction and support zones, while upside projections between $150,000 and $185,000 are considered major targets in the first quarter of 2026.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Support at $108K, Resistance at $120K, Eyes on $135K+