The Hidden On-Chain Signal That Shows Bitcoin Is Closer To A Bottom Than Most Think

What Happened

Glassnode’s latest Risk Indicator chart overlays four key on-chain price models against the Bitcoin spot price. Together, these models reveal where the market stands relative to the cost basis of different investor cohorts.

Active investor mean — $88,000

The average cost basis of active market participants. Price trading significantly below this level signals stress among engaged investors and acts as overhead resistance.

Market Context

Bitcoin is currently trading at one of the most pivotal levels of this cycle, caught between long-term on-chain support and a wall of overhead resistance created by millions of underwater short-term holders.

Realized price — $54,000

The average cost basis of every coin on the network. Bitcoin trading above this level means the average holder is in profit. This is the most fundamental long-term support and is currently well below spot, which is a structurally positive signal.

True market mean — $82,000

The average entry price for recent buyers (coins held for less than 155 days). With spot well below this level, short-term holders are sitting on unrealised losses — historically a source of continued selling pressure, but also a precondition for a capitulation bottom.

The key takeaway: spot at $70,925 sits above only the realized price and below the three other indicators.

This places Bitcoin in a historically recognized stress zone. Not the deep bear market territory of 2022 (when price fell below even the realized price), but a mid-cycle correction where short-term holders are underwater and overhead supply is significant.

The current price is retesting the previous cycle’s all-time high from 2021 (~$69,000, yellow line), a level that historically transitions from major resistance into long-term support. This week’s green candle suggests early signs of a defense of that zone.

The RSI is right above the oversold territory (below 30) after visiting it for a few weeks in February 2026 (blue ellipse). Historically, the 2022 bear market saw RSI remain deeply oversold for many weeks.

The current reading is approaching those levels, which either signals further downside ahead or that a significant bounce is near. A bullish divergence — price making a lower low while RSI holds higher — would be a meaningful signal to watch.

However, during the 2022 bear market, even a bullish MACD crossover failed to trigger a price rebound.

Why It Matters

The MACD is approaching its first bullish crossover (yellow circle) on the weekly chart since May 2025. This is a clear positive signal that has historically led to sharp rallies.

A bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart would be a high-conviction reversal signal, but it has not yet occurred.

Details

Using Glassnode’s latest on-chain indicators alongside weekly and daily technical charts, this analysis breaks down exactly where Bitcoin stands today and what needs to happen next. Two clear scenarios emerge.

How Bearish is Bitcoin Right Now? Four Cost-Basis Levels are Critical

A more refined cost basis weighted by actual economic activity, filtering out dormant coins. Spot is currently below this level, meaning a meaningful portion of active participants are underwater.

Short-term holder cost basis — ($83–$84,000)

Bitcoin’s Macro Structure In a Key Position

The weekly chart (August 2020 to present) provides the macro technical backdrop.

Bitcoin peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025 and has since corrected roughly 43% to current levels.

Broken Support, Fragile Crossovers, and a Key Demand Zone