Solana Price Outlook: What To Expect From Sol In April 2026

What Happened

History Favors Caution, and the Daily Chart Agrees

That makes six consecutive losing months, a streak that has defied historical trends. March, for instance, carries a median return of +11.1%, yet 2026, as of now, is delivering the opposite.

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Market Context

Solana (SOL) price enters April 2026 under pressure. March is closing at roughly -0.88%, extending a red streak that now stretches six consecutive months since October 2025.

The monthly returns chart shows that Solana price has not posted a single green month since September 2025. January 2026 closed at -15.3%, February dropped 20%, and March is on track to close red at roughly -0.88%.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend indicator that gives greater weight to recent price movements, currently sits at $86 ($86.80 to be exact) and could be SOL’s only hope at revival.

STH NUPL has risen sharply from deep capitulation at -0.95 on February 5 to -0.27 on March 25. It currently sits at approximately -0.40. While still negative, short-term holders now carry far fewer losses than they did weeks ago.

However, hodler’s conviction comes with a caveat. When this group last began accumulating heavily between January 10 and January 31, the SOL price actually fell from $135 to around $105 during that period.

Their buying pattern has not historically aligned with price recoveries, which limits the bullish confidence this metric can provide heading into April.

Why It Matters

A head-and-shoulders breakdown on the daily chart, confirmed on March 27, opens a measured move target near $73. With seasonality, on-chain demand, and holder behavior all sending mixed signals, April could determine whether SOL finds a floor or continues lower.

April offers little seasonal encouragement. The historical median return for SOL in April sits at -0.82%, making it one of the weakest months on record. Given that 2026 has already broken multiple seasonal patterns to the downside, relying on historical averages alone would be risky.

The short-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), an indicator of aggregate holder profitability (short-term holders only), adds another layer of risk heading into April.

This creates a problem. If spot demand does not return through April, these holders may choose to exit at a smaller loss rather than ride the breakdown further. A fresh wave of selling from this cohort could accelerate the move toward the $73 target.

The one metric pushing back against the bearish case is long-term holder accumulation. The Hodler net position change metric value rose from 523,624 SOL on March 8 to 2,327,302 SOL by March 29, a more than fourfold increase. These are mid- to long-term participants adding aggressively and could provide a psychological floor for short-term holders considering selling.

If exchange outflows resume and spot demand returns early in the month, hodler accumulation could anchor a recovery. Without that confirmation, their buying alone may not be enough to prevent the measured move from playing out.

Details

The daily chart reinforces the bearish case heading into April. A head-and-shoulders pattern completed its breakdown on March 27.

The head-to-neckline move from the breakdown projects a target near $73, which would represent an additional 15% decline.

The last time SOL reclaimed this level, in early March, it triggered the 13% rally that formed the head of the pattern. Heading into April, whether SOL can reclaim the 20-day EMA or continue to trade below it will set the tone for the month.

But the on-chain metrics need to be studied as well.

Exchange Demand Fades as the SOL Breakdown Takes Hold

On-chain data shows that the buying pressure that supported SOL through mid-March has evaporated heading into April. The exchange net position change, a measure of tokens flowing in and out of exchanges, showed strong accumulation from March 17 through March 22, peaking at approximately -2,180,253 SOL. That negative reading meant coins were leaving exchanges, a classic sign of spot buying.

However, since the head-and-shoulders pattern broke down on March 27, this metric has collapsed to roughly -426,004 SOL as of March 29. That represents an 80% decline in buying pressure within a single week.

The combination of collapsing exchange demand and improving loss positions for short-term holders entering April weakens the demand picture, even as the technical structure already leans bearish.

Hodlers Offer Resistance, but History Limits Confidence