Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree

What Happened

Long-term holder activity helps explain why prediction markets still retain some optimism, even as risks increase. These investors may have held Bitcoin for more than 1 year. Their buying and selling patterns often determine whether Bitcoin enters a sustained rally or correction.

Market Context

Bitcoin price has traded mostly flat over the past 24 hours near $68,000, reflecting continued indecision. The broader seven-day trend still shows a mild decline, highlighting the lack of strong bullish momentum. Yet one prediction market’s positioning is telling a far more optimistic story.

On Polymarket, the single largest February outcome, at 17%, expects Bitcoin to cross $75,000. This makes it the most popular directional bet as the month approaches its final week. However, market structure, on-chain activity, and whale positioning suggest reality may not align with this bullish expectation.

Prediction Markets Favor $75,000 — But Hidden Bearish Divergence Signals Trouble

Prediction market data shows ‘above $75,000’ remains the most favored February target despite weakening sentiment. Polymarket volumes, for this bet, exceed $88 million, with millions in active liquidity.

At the same time, the next most likely outcome sits at ‘under $60,000’ with a 12% probability. This positioning reveals a growing split in expectations. While many traders still hope for upside, a large portion of the market is increasingly preparing for a deeper correction instead.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a lower high between November 15 and February 16. This means price failed to fully recover during its latest rally attempt.

Since this divergence appeared, Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 6%. As long as this signal remains active, the probability of reaching the prediction market’s $75,000 target remains limited.

This sharp slowdown in selling helps stabilize Bitcoin’s price and explains why some traders still expect upside.

At the same time, cost basis distribution data reveals a major resistance cluster between $72,600 and $73,200. Around 149,000 BTC were accumulated in this range. These levels also appear clearly on the price chart as a major resistance zone just below $75,000.

Why It Matters

Because Bitcoin was already in a downtrend, this creates a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern usually signals continuation of the existing downtrend rather than a bullish reversal. It shows that even though momentum improved briefly, the broader selling pressure remains intact.

This creates a neutral balance. Bitcoin may avoid immediate collapse, but it also lacks the strength needed for a major breakout to push it close to $75,000.

The largest Bitcoin whales, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, increased their holdings from 676,540 BTC to 690,000 BTC. This represents an accumulation of about 13,460 BTC, signaling cautious buying.

Details

However, the probability of the $75,000 outcome has already declined by more than 50%, reflecting fading confidence.

This growing caution aligns closely with Bitcoin’s technical structure.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum strength, formed a higher high during the same period.

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Long-Term Holders Have Slowed Selling, But Have Not Started Buying

On February 5, long-term holders reduced their holdings by 244,919 BTC (30-day rolling change), a sign of extremely heavy selling. By February 21, this number improved to 81,019 BTC. This marks a roughly 67% reduction in selling pressure.

However, long-term holders are still net sellers overall. They have not yet transitioned into accumulation. Their activity has improved, but they are not yet providing the strong buying support needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs.

Whale Behavior Is Split

Whale positioning further reflects uncertainty.

However, smaller whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC. This means roughly 10,000 BTC were sold during the same period.

This opposing behavior shows a lack of unified conviction, even though the net balance slightly tilts towards accumulation. Some whales are preparing for a rebound, while others remain defensive.