Oil Stocks Push Higher Even As War Premium Fades

What Happened

As the war premium started to fade on April 17 with the first ceasefire announcement, XOM pulled back from its early April peak to its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend line that tracks the average price of the last 100 days. The 100-day line held as support, and the stock bounced back above $149 as of April 23.

Market Context

On March 25, as Brent traded above $105 at the peak of the Iran conflict, the BNO open interest put-call ratio sat at 0.24, meaning roughly four call options were open for every put. That was war-premium positioning, and expected.

Then came the ceasefire extension on April 22. Much of the war risk had been priced out. If traders had been betting only on the Hormuz shock, the ratio should have drifted higher as those bets were closed.

Instead, it moved the other way. The open interest ratio dropped to 0.17, close to six calls open for every put. Daily activity tightened even more, with the volume ratio at 0.05.

Tighter bullish positioning after the war scare deflating is not how hedges behave. These traders are renewing their bets and paying up to do so, with option prices running in the top 12% of their historical levels.

Buying volume has stayed steady through the drop and recovery, without the heavy selling of a panic exit or the rush of a speculative spike. That pattern looks like steady accumulation.

Management has committed to buying back another $20 billion this year. When a company returns cash at that pace, its stock has a natural floor even as oil prices fluctuate.

Why It Matters

Oil stocks have held their bids even as the Iran war premium drains from crude. It is a pattern that suggests something deeper than headlines is holding them up.

The bullish signal in oil stocks shows up clearest in options positioning on the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO). It is an ETF that tracks Brent crude futures.

The BNO signal was clearly visible in ExxonMobil (XOM).

Details

Options positioning on the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) has become more bullish since the April 22 ceasefire extension, not less so. 3 reasons explain what traders are actually pricing in.

Why Options Traders Are Betting on Oil Even as the War Premium Deflates

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That level of conviction, while the biggest short-term driver fades, says the bet is on something that lasts longer than a headline. 3 reasons explain why the options flow has stayed firm, and each line up behind a different oil stock.

Institutional Money is Flowing into ExxonMobil

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks whether big institutional money is flowing into or out of a stock, confirms the read.

Between April 8 and April 20, XOM slid lower while CMF moved higher, a classic sign that professional buyers were stepping in on weakness.

Wall Street sees the same thing. On April 10, right as the Iran de-escalation was gaining traction and the Hormuz premium was already starting to fade, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman reiterated his Buy rating on XOM with only a small trim from $175 to $172.

The reason behind that call is simple. ExxonMobil paid its shareholders $37.2 billion in 2025, $17.2 billion in dividends, and another $20 billion in share buybacks.

A clean reclaim of $150 and push through $155, the first Fibonacci level traders are watching, opens a move toward $163.

However, a break below $141 would snap the 100-day EMA and expose $131 and $114 as deeper support zones.

Valero Stock Is Set Up Like February 3

The same war-premium deflation also tested Valero Energy (VLO), a US company whose only business is turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

VLO pulled back from its early April peak, then quickly climbed back above its 50-day EMA and is now working to break above the 20-day EMA at $235.