Norway Probes Potential Insider Trading Scandal Sparked By Suspicious Polymarket Bets: Report

What Happened

Norwegian officials are investigating a possible information leak related to betting activity on Polymarket, following online wagers that correctly predicted the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize hours before the official announcement.

According to Bloomberg, the Norwegian Nobel Institute has confirmed that it is examining whether confidential information about the prize recipient, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, was leaked ahead of the public announcement.

Officials Investigate Nobel Prize Information Leak Linked to Polymarket Trading

The investigation was prompted after trading data on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain, showed a sudden surge in bets favoring Machado roughly 11 hours before the Nobel Committee’s announcement in Oslo.

At around midnight Norwegian time, Polymarket users began heavily buying contracts for Machado at just $0.08, sending the price soaring to $1.00 by the time of the announcement, a more than 1,000% gain.

Local media reports indicate that the five-member Nobel Committee had finalized its decision on Monday, with Machado being notified shortly before the announcement.

Hours before the Nobel Committee made its public announcement, Machado’s contract price began climbing sharply, while odds for other candidates remained flat. The incident shows both the power and risk of open information markets.

Norwegian authorities have not commented on whether any formal financial investigation will follow, but officials within the Nobel Institute acknowledged the need to review the integrity of the prize process.

Analysts note that even though no major media outlets reported on Machado’s win before the announcement, the Polymarket data had already priced it in.

Polymarket Eyes U.S. Relaunch With $205M Raise as Kalshi Dominates Market

The investments have lifted the company’s valuation to $1.2 billion, marking its transition from a DeFi startup to a major player in the prediction market space.

Polymarket’s total funding now stands at roughly $279 million, excluding a new partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, which plans to invest up to $2 billion.

Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the United States after acquiring QCX LLC for $112 million, a move that granted it a Designated Contract Market license.

Market Context

The timing of the surge in Polymarket activity has led officials to question whether information about the winner may have been leaked from within the committee or its close network of advisers.

Polymarket, known for allowing users to trade on real-world outcomes using stablecoins such as USDC, has become a fast-growing venue for crowdsourced prediction data.

In this case, the Nobel Peace Prize market, which allowed users to buy and sell shares of potential winners, became a focal point of speculation.

While such platforms aggregate public sentiment and data efficiently, they also raise questions about insider knowledge when trading activity appears to outpace official disclosures.

The case marks one of the first known instances in which a blockchain-based prediction market has potentially exposed a leak within a major international institution.

Amidst the allegation, Polymarket has raised a combined $205 million across two previously undisclosed funding rounds between 2024 and 2025, according to CEO Shayne Coplan.

The first round, in 2024, secured $55 million led by Blockchain Capital at a $350 million valuation. A year later, Founders Fund led a $150 million Series B with participation from Ribbit Capital, Valor, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, 1confirmation, Coinbase, and Dragonfly.

Why It Matters

“We’re looking into it,” said Erik Aasheim, spokesperson for the Nobel Institute, following reports first published by Aftenposten and Finansavisen.

Machado was ultimately awarded the prize on Friday morning for her efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela.

Details

Three accounts that primarily bet on Machado reportedly earned a combined profit of about $90,000, according to Finansavisen.

The platform often attracts traders who analyze public clues, social media activity, and institutional behavior to anticipate events before they are officially confirmed.