by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Traders on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market, now assign a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached before January 2028.
  • The contract has attracted more than $2.76 million in trading volume.
  • The odds have more than doubled since November 2025, when the market opened near 30%.
  • The contract peaked above 70% in March before pulling back slightly to its current level.

What Happened

Kalshi’s impeachment contract resolves “Yes” if the US House of Representatives passes articles of impeachment, verified through congress.gov. It does not require Senate conviction or removal from office.

Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the rise. Trump’s rhetoric on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed calls from Democratic lawmakers for impeachment or invoking the 25th Amendment.

No formal impeachment proceedings are underway as of April 22, 2026.

Market Context

Traders on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market, now assign a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached before January 2028. The contract has attracted more than $2.76 million in trading volume.

The odds have more than doubled since November 2025, when the market opened near 30%. The contract peaked above 70% in March before pulling back slightly to its current level.

The steady climb reflects trader expectations around the 2026 midterms. Separate prediction markets give Democrats roughly a 71% chance of retaking the House.

However, a separate Kalshi market on full removal, which requires a two-thirds Senate vote or the 25th Amendment, trades far lower at roughly 27%.

Prediction markets can also misfire, as traders learned during the 2016 presidential election.

The post Markets Anticipate Political Trouble for Trump As Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Why It Matters

Midterm Risk Fuels the Bet

“The shift suggests growing expectations of political trouble ahead, though outcomes remain uncertain,” stated Walter Bloomberg, a popular account on X.

A Democratic majority would likely pursue impeachment proceedings, mirroring the two House votes during Trump’s first term.

Details

Whether the odds continue rising will depend largely on November’s midterm results and how Congress responds to the administration’s foreign policy decisions.