by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • However, analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook.
  • “If the balance between older deposits and consistent demand from newer maturities persists, we may witness upward price accumulation in the coming weeks.”
  • Despite the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price since the start of November, analysts also observe a bullish pattern.
  • Inflows into “permanent holder” wallets, addresses with no outflows continue rising steadily.

What Happened

President Trump recently announced the “tariff dividend,” distributing at least $2,000 per American to 85%+ of adults, totaling $400+ billion.

When this happened during COVID, most Americans invested in crypto.

Market Context

According to ArabXchain, Bitcoin holding near $106,000, despite these whale movements, confirms that the market is experiencing quiet redistribution, not a sell-off.

“If the balance between older deposits and consistent demand from newer maturities persists, we may witness upward price accumulation in the coming weeks.”

Despite the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price since the start of November, analysts also observe a bullish pattern.

The realized price of long-term holders has climbed to around $78,520, indicating that institutions, funds, and whales are accumulating even at higher price levels while stronger hands absorb short-term selling pressure.

MAC_D analyst on CryptoQuant notes that a true bear market would begin only if Bitcoin breaks below the cost basis at $78,500.

“In the short term, factors such as a potential U.S. government shutdown, equity market corrections, and elevated Korean premium could lead to additional volatility.”

That said, the market is now entering a phase of liquidity expansion, supported by rate-cut expectations, the end of quantitative tightening (QT), and rising M2.

Polymarket traders now believe the shutdown will end within the next 3 days.

Within 6 weeks, BTC pumped 50% from $6,800 to $10,000, and during the broader 2020-2021 run, BTC went from $3,850 to $69,000, and the total crypto market cap surged from $180B to $3 trillion.

On the technical front, the Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour chart shows the price consolidating around the $105,970 level after rebounding from a key support zone near $104,900, identified as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).

Above the current price, Bitcoin faces a cluster of resistance zones between $108,000 and $112,000, which also coincide with areas of cumulative short liquidation leverage.

Why It Matters

However, analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook.

When long-term whales move coins to exchanges like Binance, it typically signals their readiness to take profits or reallocate positions after prolonged inactivity, which is only a short-term warning sign.

Trump’s $2,000 Stimulus Check Could Pump BTC By 50% in 6 Weeks

After 40 days of deadlock, reports circulating now show that the U.S. government shutdown might be coming to an end.

Technical Analysis: $108K Breakout Could Send Bitcoin to $112K

This area aligns with the cumulative long liquidation leverage zone, suggesting a region where selling pressure has likely eased and buyers are starting to regain control.

Details

Data reveals that long-term Bitcoin whales with wallets averaging 5-7 years old have been moving their Bitcoin to Binance at a rate last seen in July, when BTC entered a redistribution phase before reaching a $124,000 high a month later.

According to CryptoQuant data, Binance’s Exchange Spent Output Age Bands indicator rose on November 4th to a 4-month high, contributing to selling pressure that pushed Bitcoin down over 8% in the past week.

Analysts Say Bitcoin’s Whale Transfer Is “Quiet Redistribution”

Inflows into “permanent holder” wallets, addresses with no outflows continue rising steadily.

The US Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bill in a major breakthrough to end the historic shutdown.