Jpmorgan Gives Bold Nvidia Stock Price Target, But Market’s Not Buying It

What Happened

This is standard on Wall Street, but it is a context that retail investors should be aware of when evaluating the bullishness behind a price target upgrade.

What Retail NVDA Investors See vs What Institutions Are Doing

The most recent 13F filings (quarterly reports large investors must file with the SEC revealing their positions) for Q4 2025 show a dramatic shift in institutional sentiment.

Market Context

NVIDIA Stock just delivered a record-breaking Q4 with $68.1 billion in revenue, 73% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share of $1.62 that crushed estimates. JPMorgan, among others, wasted no time raising its price target from $250 to $265.

Yet on February 26, the stock fell nearly 7% from its session high of $197 to under $185. The results are undeniable. But the price action, the money flow, and the institutional behavior tell a very different story. At least, for now.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur responded by lifting the Nvidia price target from $250 to $265.

The Q1 guidance implies roughly 14.5% sequential growth. Revenue keeps hitting records, but the pace of acceleration is fading. For a stock priced on growth momentum, this distinction matters. Something big money might be watching.

CFO Colette Kress confirmed that the top 5 hyperscalers (cloud computing providers) account for slightly over 50% of data center revenue. That level of customer concentration means that even a modest 10-15% reduction in AI capex from a few major buyers could translate into billions in lost quarterly revenue.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), an indicator that tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days, tells a positive story on the surface.

Yet despite this wall of institutional money entering NVDA in Q4, the stock barely moved — trading sideways for most of the period. That suggests institutions were accumulating, but supply from insiders and earlier holders absorbed the demand. NVIDIA director Mark Stevens sold approximately $40 million in shares in December.

Institutions are clearly positioned. But the hedging and the flat price despite massive inflows suggest they are bracing for something. The next section explores what that might be.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that measures whether money is flowing into or out of a stock based on where the price closes within its daily range weighted by volume, reveals what the earnings headline does not.

Since February 5, as the right shoulder of Nvidia’s inverse head and shoulders pattern formed, CMF climbed steadily alongside the price. It rose all the way into the February 25 earnings breakout when Nvidia briefly touched $197.

Why It Matters

OBV has maintained higher highs throughout Nvidia’s 3-month consolidation, suggesting retail-driven buying pressure remains consistently positive. However, it still needs to break past its ascending trendline resistance to confirm genuine broad-based strength.

The Risk Hiding in the Charts

Details

The Numbers Look Bulletproof, Until You Look Closer

NVIDIA’s Q4 numbers speak for themselves. Revenue hit $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The data center segment alone pulled in $62.3 billion, making up 91% of total revenue. EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $1.62 beat the $1.53 consensus by nearly 6%.

And the Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78 billion blew past Wall Street’s $72.8 billion estimate — a figure that notably excludes any revenue from China.

But here is what most analysts are not highlighting. NVIDIA’s quarter-over-quarter growth rate is quietly decelerating. Q3 grew 22% over Q2. Q4 grew 19.5% over Q3.

There is also the question of who is actually driving this revenue. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster estimates that roughly 70% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from just 8 companies.

It is also worth noting that JPMorgan’s asset management division is itself a significant institutional holder of Nvidia.

Net institutional money flow surged to approximately $149 billion in purchases against $36 billion in sales — a net inflow of roughly $113 billion. That is a massive improvement from Q3, where institutions bought $38 billion and sold $34 billion, leaving a net inflow of just $4 billion.

Bank of America, while slightly increasing its equity stake, closed out both its call and put options positions entirely — neutralizing its directional bets.

Then on February 26, as the stock reversed sharply to $185, CMF plunged.