by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month.
  • The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, as the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’.
  • So, do all of these market indicators signal a bear market?
  • The Fear & Greed Index at 10 reflects extreme fear comparable to early 2022 and June 2022, both confirmed bear-market phases.

What Happened

Yesterday: 16

Last week: 20

Last month: 28

Market Context

Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month. The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, as the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’.

So, do all of these market indicators signal a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historical data.

Sentiment Signals Are at Bear-Market Levels

The Fear & Greed Index at 10 reflects extreme fear comparable to early 2022 and June 2022, both confirmed bear-market phases.

However, sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market — it only signals capitulation or exhaustion.

Bitcoin Has Broken Its Most Important Bull-Market Support

Bitcoin is trading below it.

The breakdown mirrors December 2021, when price lost the same MA and the bear market started.

Failing to reclaim this level quickly often confirms a cycle regime shift. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear-market transition.

On-Chain Cost Basis Shows Early Capitulation, Not Distribution Top

The 6–12 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price now sits around $94,600. Bitcoin price currently stands slightly above this level.

When their position enters loss, market structure weakens.

In 2021, Bitcoin price falling below this cohort’s cost basis was one of the final signals before the extended downtrend. This is the first time that cost-basis stress has reappeared since 2022.

Why It Matters

The trend shows accelerating fear, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs usually begin with this kind of persistent fear compression.

The 365-day moving average is the long-term structural pivot.

Details

Current situation:

The 365-day MA is near $102,000.

Historically:

This matters because:

These holders bought during the ETF rally.

They represent “bull-cycle conviction buyers.”