Is Bitcoin Already In A Bear Market? Fidelity Chief Raises Concerns

What Happened

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.

Market Context

Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been supportive macro signals. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, yet Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting fresh capital, the price stalled while money rotated elsewhere.

That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market discussion is resurfacing.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in price and time. The on-chain and market data since then increasingly support that view.

Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market

Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.

Since then, fresh capital has failed to return, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaced accumulation after the peak.

This aligns directly with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle phase likely ended in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing exposure rather than defending price.

Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons

Bitcoin dominance has climbed back toward 57–59%, but this is not a risk-on signal.

After the softer CPI print, capital did not rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into traditional hedges. Over the past year, silver has rallied by over 120%, while gold is up roughly 65%. At the same time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.

This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rising dominance is not being driven by fresh risk appetite, but by capital retreating into relative safety within crypto.

That view is echoed by an exclusive market comment shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” he highlighted.

Why It Matters

That August inflow peak closely preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the same period Timmer identified as the likely cycle top.

Details

Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak

Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That fuel has vanished.

Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at around 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.

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Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers

Conviction holders are behaving differently after October.

Bitcoin long-term holder net position change flipped negative shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to around 279,000 BTC recently. That is an increase of more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.

Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.

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