Dogecoin Price Prediction: Bearish Chart Meets Bullish On-Chain Moves – Which Side Wins Next?

What Happened

Long-Term Holders Accumulate as Speculative Supply Contracts

Network coin activity, measured via the spent coins metric, reinforces this perspective.

The on-chain amount spent on coins has plummeted sharply.

Market Context

Dogecoin has experienced a months-long downtrend as bearish chart signals reveal price has surrendered crucial $0.15-$0.20 support levels, resulting in DOGE declining over 60% year-to-date.

However, newly emerging on-chain activity suggests the Dogecoin price prediction is split between bullish reversal and bearish continuation scenarios.

Dogecoin Price Prediction: 4-Hour Chart Shows Defined Downtrend Structure

The chart shows Dogecoin trading in a well-defined downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe, with price currently hovering around the $0.125 region.

Market structure remains bearish, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, and price continues to trade below all highlighted resistance zones. The most immediate level to watch is the $0.12 area, which has been marked as a critical support.

As long as Dogecoin remains below this level, upside attempts are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing. A more meaningful bullish confirmation would only emerge if price reclaims and holds above the broader $0.16 resistance band.

The RSI is sitting near the low-40s, below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak momentum and a market that still favors sellers.

Why It Matters

According to Glassnode data, Dogecoin speculative supply is contracting while longer-term holders display early accumulation signals.

The 1-year to 2-year holder cohort has expanded its share of Dogecoin supply from approximately 21.84% to 22.34%. While the increase appears modest, the signal carries significance.

These holders typically accumulate only when they believe downside risk is beginning to diminish.

This level is acting as a demand floor for now, but repeated tests weaken its strength, increasing the risk of a breakdown if sellers remain dominant.

Such a move would signal a shift in momentum and could open the door for a recovery toward $0.18 first and potentially $0.20–$0.21, which aligns with the higher target levels marked on the chart.

Until then, rallies into resistance are likely to attract selling pressure.

Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious outlook.

While RSI is not deeply oversold, suggesting room for short-term bounces, it does not yet show the strength typically associated with trend reversals.

Details

The spent coins age band metric dropped from roughly 251.97 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE, representing a decline exceeding 60% in coin movement.

Reduced coin activity potentially indicates fewer holders are rushing to transfer or liquidate tokens.

Historically, similar activity declines have preceded short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin.

Earlier in December, a comparable slowdown preceded a rally from near $0.132 to $0.151, a nearly 15% move within three days.

On the upside, the $0.14 zone stands out as an important resistance, aligning with prior consolidation and multiple rejection points.

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