by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green.
  • This bounce comes as traders enter a long US holiday weekend that has historically set the tone for December.
  • Fear and Greed Index data shows sentiment improving from 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains in “Extreme Fear.”
  • This shift aligns with a steady rise in average crypto RSI, which climbed from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today.

What Happened

Fear and Greed Index data shows sentiment improving from 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains in “Extreme Fear.”

Momentum also flipped. The normalized MACD across major assets has turned positive for the first time since early November.

A Familiar Post-Thanksgiving Setup Has Emerged

Market Context

The crypto market is showing its first meaningful recovery after a harsh November sell-off, and several metrics now resemble the same conditions seen around Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green. This bounce comes as traders enter a long US holiday weekend that has historically set the tone for December.

Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear

About 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies now show positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana appear in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap.

Price action supports this shift. Bitcoin is up 6% on the week. Ethereum has gained nearly 8%. Solana climbed almost 8% in the same period.

The market cap has grown to $3.21 trillion, rising 1.1% over the last 24 hours.

The current recovery mirrors a structure seen twice before. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp drawdown and then stabilized into December.

In 2022, Bitcoin fell to near $16,000 following the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had exhausted, and the market traded sideways into Christmas.

In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a steep September-October correction. Strong ETF expectations and improving liquidity conditions pushed BTC to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a classic early-bull December rally.

Bitcoin’s 90-day Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to neutral, signalling that aggressive sellers have stepped back. Funding rates and leverage data support the same interpretation.

Liquidity Damage Still Shapes the Current Cycle

BitMine chairman Tom Lee described the market as “limping” after the October 10 liquidation shock.

He said market makers were forced to shrink their balance sheets, weakening market depth across exchanges. That fragility persisted through November.

However, Lee also argued that Bitcoin tends to make its biggest moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. He expects a strong December rally if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance.

BTC makes up more than 53% of all collateral on the platform. This behavior suppresses immediate sell pressure, helping stabilize spot markets. But it also adds hidden leverage that could amplify future volatility.

Why It Matters

This shift aligns with a steady rise in average crypto RSI, which climbed from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. The reading signals growing strength after deep oversold conditions earlier in the month.

We May Be Entering a Two-Year Holiday Pattern

Details

It was a deep bear consolidation phase rather than a rally.

This year, the pattern again repeats one familiar element: the November crash came early, and by Thanksgiving, selling momentum had eased.

On-chain data aligns with this view. Nexo collateral figures show users still prefer borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it.

Three factors now look similar to the post-Thanksgiving conditions of 2022 and 2023: