Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 This Weekend As The Strait Of Hormuz Opens?

What Happened

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $78,000 on Friday, reaching its highest level in over two months as a confirmed double-bottom breakout fueled momentum toward the $80,000 zone.

Weekly Close Holds the Key to $80,000

The surge comes after reports that Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz completely, amid ongoing ceasefire terms.

Market Context

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $77,922, just shy of the $80,000 psychological level last tested on January 31, 2026.

Against this backdrop, eyes remain peeled on whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level this weekend, potentially drawing tailwinds from resounding risk-on sentiment.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has maintained itself above the double-bottom formation top near $73,000, positioning price for a positive weekly close.

“Bitcoin’s progression on the Daily timeframe has been promising, enabling price to maintain itself above the Double Bottom formation top of ~$73,000… it is the upcoming Weekly Close that will be most important to watch for,” wrote Rekt Capital.

Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi now prices a roughly 40% chance that BTC hits $80,000 this month, but several key levels remain in focus for Q2.

Trader Ted Pillows identified $76,000 as the key reclaim level that could propel price into the $78,000 to $80,000 band.

Bear Market Warnings Temper Optimism

Despite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also flagged significant macro headwinds. He argued that for BTC to build sustained bullish momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break its multi-month series of lower highs.

History suggests neither milestone will happen, with roughly six months of bear market potentially remaining.

The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear markets, sits directly in the current price path. The broader oil shock from the Hormuz crisis adds another layer of macro uncertainty.

Ted Pillows separately disclosed plans to short BTC near the $79,000 to $80,000 zone, citing a pattern from the last two local tops where price took out the capitulation candle’s highs before reversing.

Meanwhile, multiple on-chain indicators have flashed mixed signals throughout April. CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu pointed to the Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which has dropped into the 0.2 to 0.3 range.

Why It Matters

The rally followed Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ceasefire terms, which triggered a broad risk-on move across equities and crypto. Yet analysts remain sharply divided on whether BTC can sustain the push through heavy overhead resistance.

If this behavior continues, it could confirm the breakout from a multi-week consolidation range.

“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone. This is where I’ll go short on Bitcoin,” wrote Ted.

On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation but Needs Confirmation

Details

However, he cautioned that a similar setup in March ended with an upside wick and a subsequent rejection.

On the daily chart, BTC has flipped former resistance levels near $73,000 into support, with consecutive daily closes above prior breakdown zones.

Indeed, Bitcoin’s foray past $76,000 provided an entry for long positions, with a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday catching many naysayers off guard. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in short positions were liquidated in the last hour.

BTC is also clustering beneath a macro triangle it broke down from months ago, a pattern that in 2014 resolved through distribution to the downside.

QCP Group echoed the caution, noting that derivatives desks still favor downside protection. The rally appears spot-driven and fragile rather than a structural trend change.