Btc Pushes Past $117K Liquidity Wall After $429M Etf Inflows – Bullish Breakout Or Bear Trap?

What Happened

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $199.43 million, followed by Ark Invest’s ARKB at $105.74 million and Fidelity’s FBTC with $54.7 million, bringing the total value traded to $3.26 billion.

Historically, MVRV hovers near 1.8 most of the year, but climbs above 1.9 in October and approaches 2.0 by December, reflecting stronger demand and investor profitability.

Market Context

Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed through the $117,000 liquidity wall, climbing close to $118,000 as renewed strength from U.S. spot ETF inflows puts the bulls back in control.

Traders are now closely watching two key liquidity clusters, one lower near $107K, where billions of dollars in long positions could still be liquidated, and another higher around $118K, where shorts could be forced to cover.

He expects resistance between $117,500 and $119,000, with a potential move lower toward the $111K–$112K range, where liquidity and an unfilled CME gap remain.

Another analyst described the move as a “squeeze fakeout” on the daily timeframe, where a breakout with strong volume quickly reverses, trapping traders before establishing a new trend.

The MVRV ratio, which tracks how far BTC’s market price has diverged from its average on-chain cost basis, also supports this bullish narrative.

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model places the average recent entry price at $102,900, well below current levels, suggesting the rally has room to extend before traders become overheated.

Why It Matters

This view suggests that while a correction may come first, the next upward leg could be far stronger, with Fibonacci projections pointing as high as $155,000.

Even if Bitcoin retests the $111K–$112K zone, analysts say it could form the base for a stronger rally into the year-end.

Glassnode identifies $122,000 as the first “heated zone” where profit-taking could intensify, and $138,000 as the “overheated zone,” a level often associated with cycle peaks.

Details

Data from SoSoValue shows ETFs recorded $429.9 million in net inflows on September 30, marking the second consecutive day of gains and driving October’s early momentum.

Bitcoin $116K Push Paints a “Squeeze Fakeout” as Analysts Warn of CME Gap and Bearish Reversal

Crypto trader TradeWithThanos argues that the recent pump to $116K was designed to spark euphoria, setting a new monthly high before selling off to close the CME gap.

In the short term, professional trader Ezy Bitcoin pointed out the importance of CME futures gaps.

Using the CrossX indicator, he noted that gaps remain below $112K and emphasized that every gap in the past five months has been filled.

“So, if we get a small pullback here, I see it as a solid opportunity to accumulate more before the next big move,” he said.

Bitcoin “Uptober” Effect Shows Why October’s +29.9% Average Return Still Matters

On the macro and seasonal front, CryptoQuant points to the well-known “Uptober” effect.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that August and September tend to post flat or negative returns (−0.54% and −4.16% on average), while October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December consistently deliver outsized gains.

CryptoQuant describes the current environment as the “calm before the moon,” with consolidation potentially giving way to aggressive upside.

Further supporting this thesis, Lookonchain noted that Bitcoin closed September with a 5.35% gain, which is historically a precursor to bullish Octobers.

Elliott Wave Outlines Bitcoin’s Path Toward $125K Before $150K Target

On the technical front, the daily chart reveals an Elliott Wave structure combined with key support and resistance zones following the move above $116K.