by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has shown a consistent four-year cycle.
  • It’s driven by massive moves centered around Bitcoin’s halving, peaking with a blow-off top the next year.
  • Without that blow-off top, the rest of the crypto market has stalled out, since soaring Bitcoin prices tend to kick off altcoin season.
  • With Bitcoin prices down 30% from their early October highs, it’s clear that the four-year price cycle has lost its validity.

What Happened

One area where investors have noted a strong correlation with Bitcoin is with global liquidity:

Michael Saylor recently called out the four-year cycle as “dead.” Saylor sees a massive repricing soon, which may explain his rush this year to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible.

Some investors today are turning to the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Market Context

Since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin prices have trended higher, but none of the signs of a speculative blow-off top have occurred in 2025, at least within the timeframe consistent with the four-year cycle.

Without that blow-off top, the rest of the crypto market has stalled out, since soaring Bitcoin prices tend to kick off altcoin season.

With Bitcoin prices down 30% from their early October highs, it’s clear that the four-year price cycle has lost its validity.

However, liquidity isn’t the only factor.

Weak PMI → economic concerns → potential Fed easing → more liquidity → potentially supportive for Bitcoin

Bitcoin often responds more strongly to monetary policy signals (Fed decisions, liquidity conditions) than to real economy indicators like PMI.

Why It Matters

This is a sensible development, since BTC is rapidly maturing as an asset class. Rising institutional interest also means that Bitcoin’s cycles will more likely center around economic cycles.

Should that trend establish itself, Bitcoin could jump higher – and even kick off an altcoin season.

When PMI is above 50, it suggests expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

In theory, a strong PMI signals economic growth, which could influence Bitcoin through several channels:

Strong PMI → robust economy → risk-on sentiment → higher appetite for speculative assets like Bitcoin

Sometimes, Bitcoin trades as a “risk-on” asset (correlating positively with stocks and economic strength).

Other times, it trades as a “risk-off” hedge (like digital gold during uncertainty), and it will even move independently based on crypto-specific factors.

When PMI does seem to matter, it’s typically through the broader risk sentiment channel rather than a direct mechanistic relationship.

Details

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has shown a consistent four-year cycle. It’s driven by massive moves centered around Bitcoin’s halving, peaking with a blow-off top the next year.

End of the Famous Bitcoin Cycle?

While there has been a strong correlation since the start of 2024, even that trend has broken in recent months.

Economic Activity

The PMI measures manufacturing sector health and serves as an economic leading indicator.

However, even tools like PMI fail to work as a one-stop indicator for Bitcoin and the crypto cycle.

Data also shows that the correlations between Bitcoin and PMI are unstable and vary across different time periods.