Bitcoin Ready For 'Big Moves' On 91% Chance Of Fed Rate Cut: Crypto Daybook Americas

What Happened

In other news, State Street's 2025 Digital Assets Outlook showed that nearly 60% of institutional investors are planning to boost their digital asset exposure in the coming year, with the average exposure expected to double within three years.

Meanwhile, Chainlink launched a Chainlink-grade RPC endpoint for the HyperEVM testnet, providing builders in the @HyperliquidX ecosystem with infrastructure for developers working on innovative solutions like HIP-3, vaults, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and spot deployment.

Nothing scheduled. MacroOct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%). Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%. Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%). Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%. Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2. Token Events Governance votes & callsDecentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10. UnlocksOct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million. Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million. Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million. Token LaunchesNo major launches.

Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%). Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%. Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%). Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%. Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2. Token Events Governance votes & callsDecentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10. UnlocksOct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million. Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million. Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million. Token LaunchesNo major launches.

Nothing scheduled. Nothing scheduled. Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%). Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%. Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2. Token Events Governance votes & callsDecentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10. UnlocksOct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million. Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million. Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million. Token LaunchesNo major launches.

Decentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10. UnlocksOct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million. Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million. Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million. Token LaunchesNo major launches.

Oct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million. Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million. Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million. Token LaunchesNo major launches.

Token Launches

No major launches.

Market Context

It's a tough market to trade as bitcoin's (BTC) price swings sharply. Following a late Thursday drop from $123,000 to $120,000, BTC has recovered to trade around $121,400, with privacy coins such as Zcash (ZEC) and dash (DASH) rising sharply. The CoinDesk 20 Index has bounced to 4,178 points from the overnight low of 4,097.

BTC's volatility has picked up, likely in expectation of another Fed rate cut later this month.

"Bitcoin volatility is poised for a breakout. Implied volatilities across 14, 30, and 90-day expiries have surged to their highest levels in the past 30 days, pointing to increased anticipation of big moves ahead," Nick Forster, founder of decentralized exchange Derive, said.

Forster added that the so-called vol spike comes as markets price in a near-certain 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.

Polymarket bettors price in a 91% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points at the Oct. 28-29 meeting, even as the ongoing government shutdown has delayed key data releases. The central bank cut rates to 25 bps to 4% last month.

Several U.S. Democratic senators reportedly made a counter proposal to the market structure bill, involving a "restricted list" for DeFi protocols deemed too risky. Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsk said it could derail regulatory progress while undermining the bipartisan support for the Clarity Act seen in the House in July.

In traditional markets, the dollar index continues to hover at two-month highs, as China tightened its grip on rare earth exports, ratcheting up trends ahead of an expected Xi-Trump meeting in South Korea later this month. Stay alert!

Why It Matters

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

What to Watch

Details

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto

Macro

Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 7.2%.

Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Nothing scheduled.

Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%).

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Unlocks

Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million.

Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million.