by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • February delivered close to 15% losses, echoing last year’s February, which saw the Bitcoin price drop by over 17%.
  • With five consecutive red months now on the books, starting from October 2025, and a median March return of −1.31%, the seasonal backdrop offers little comfort.
  • One of the most pressing concerns for the Bitcoin price right now is its sustained correlation with US equities.
  • This reflects in the historical sightings as a weak S&P 500 month-on-month ensured a dismal February for Bitcoin.

What Happened

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As of March 1, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 stands at 0.55, up from around 0.50 in October 2025.

Kevin Crowther, Founder of KC Private Wealth, emphasized this dynamic.

Market Context

The Bitcoin price enters March bruised. February delivered close to 15% losses, echoing last year’s February, which saw the Bitcoin price drop by over 17%.

Bitcoin Price Still Trades as a Risk Asset

One of the most pressing concerns for the Bitcoin price right now is its sustained correlation with US equities. This reflects in the historical sightings as a weak S&P 500 month-on-month ensured a dismal February for Bitcoin.

This means the Bitcoin price continues to move largely in step with stocks, undermining its appeal as a hedge against traditional market risk. With Trump’s new global tariffs adding pressure to equities and potential US-Iran military escalation weighing on risk appetite, Bitcoin’s risk-on behavior keeps it vulnerable.

Meanwhile, gold and silver continue to surge while Bitcoin bleeds. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, particularly around Iran, risk sentiment could shift. And if the gold and silver trade becomes saturated, capital could begin rotating into Bitcoin as the next uncrowded allocation. That rotation hinges on the equity correlation breaking.

“The ETF outflows are more consistent with deleveraging than institutional abandonment. For flows to reverse meaningfully, markets need clearer macro direction and lower volatility,” Kılıç explained in an exclusive quote to BeInCrypto.

Long-term holders — wallets that have held Bitcoin for 365 days or more — are a critical group for gauging market direction. When their selling ends, the Bitcoin price tends to stabilize and recover. Throughout February, their net selling has collapsed. On February 5, the 30-day rolling net position change for long-term holders stood at −243,737 BTC. By March 1, that figure had fallen to just −31,967 BTC, an 87% reduction.

Miner behavior mirrors this trend. Bitcoin miners, who sell BTC to cover operational costs, saw peak capitulation around February 8 when net selling hit −4,718 BTC. By March 1, that had eased to −837 BTC, a sharp decline that suggests the worst of miner capitulation may be behind us.

Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit, offered a key distinction here, taking the negative hash rate growth into account.

“Bitcoin miners aren’t capitulating; they’re making strategic diversifications. The drawdown in the hashrate is only to be expected in light of Bitcoin’s price plummet, but does not imply structural capitulation,” Tan noted.

Why It Matters

With five consecutive red months now on the books, starting from October 2025, and a median March return of −1.31%, the seasonal backdrop offers little comfort. But beneath the surface, a shift may be forming. Here is what the data shows heading into March.

“Bitcoin’s high correlation to software stocks weakens its case as a hedge asset in times of uncertainty, and so as Trump continues to elevate economic uncertainty, continued BTC weakness should be expected,” Crowther said.

Nima Beni, Founder of Bitlease, was more direct about what the data signals, especially taking BlackRock’s IBIT outflow into account:

Details

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Are Fading: A Quiet Shift

While the macro picture remains challenging, spot Bitcoin ETF data tells a more nuanced story. February marked the fourth consecutive month of net outflows, but the trend is shifting sharply.

November 2025 saw $3.48 billion in outflows. December brought $1.09 billion, January $1.61 billion, and February closed at just $206.52 million — a 94% reduction from November’s peak.

Orkun Mahir Kılıç, Co-Founder of Citrea, noted that these outflows reflect positioning adjustments rather than a structural retreat.

“ETF outflows are retail panic, creating institutional opportunity. BlackRock’s $2.13B IBIT outflow matters less than the fact that 94% of ETF Bitcoin holdings remained despite maximum fear. That’s institutional conviction, not abandonment,” Beni stated.

Overall, the experts didn’t seem perturbed by the ETF outflow streak.

Selling Pressure Is Exhausting Across the Board – The Bounce Catalyst?

Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows that selling from both long-term holders and Bitcoin miners is drying up rapidly.