Bitcoin Price Prediction: What To Expect From Btc In 2026

What Happened

Still, voices like YoungHoon Kim argue recent dips look like temporary manipulation before strength returns. With predictions in conflict, the truth sits somewhere between fear and euphoria. We dive deeper to see which signs on the chart and on-chain matter most as the new year begins.

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Right now, a similar setup is appearing. And the reason for the reddish December lies with the short-term BTC holders.

Market Context

Bitcoin price enters 2026 with split expectations. Some call for a rally toward $200,000, like Tom Lee. Others, including veteran trader Peter Brandt, warn about retests before deeper weakness.

Bitcoin is ending December in the red zone again (almost there). That has mattered before. Since 2022, every time Bitcoin closed December in red, January flipped green. That pattern helped set the foundation for each move higher in 2025— including the April 2025 rally that eventually pushed the BTC price toward the $126,000 peak in October.

Short-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), which tracks profit and loss sentiment for recent buyers, remains in the capitulation zone. The last time this happened was in April 2025, which marked a bottom and helped start the run toward that $126,000 high in October 2025.

This time, the same capitulation signal has appeared. On November 21, short-term holder NUPL hit −0.27, even bettering the April bottom sign. Today, it sits around −0.14, still inside capitulation territory. The bottom signal is technically present. The reaction is not.

So if the April capitulation helped build a bottom that later sent Bitcoin to new highs, the question today is simple:

And that leads us to the next section: the groups that usually step in to absorb this capitulation — long-term holders and whales — have not been fully present this time. And they are still not fully there, weakening the lead up to 2026.

Long-term holders (LTHs) usually step in when short-term holders capitulate. They absorb supply, stabilize price, and start the next leg. That’s what happened in April 2025. LTH net accumulation peaked at 22,237 BTC in one day back then and stayed in green throughout. It created a cushion for the price to recover.

The signal has improved, but it isn’t strong enough to flip the market by itself, going into 2026.

Whale wallet counts holding 10,000–100,000 BTC remain at a yearly low. These wallets were rising into the April bottom and kept rising through July. That uptrend backed the run toward $126,000. Today, it’s the opposite. The lack of whale absorption leaves a gap. That gap is why the November capitulation didn’t ignite the price the same way April did.

Why It Matters

December Patterns And a Bottom Signal That Hasn’t Triggered Yet

“Speaking of one on-chain signal to pay attention to, for me, it’s short-term holders’ behavior versus long-term holders’ stability. As long as long-term holders stay firm, the cycle survives,” he mentioned.

Why hasn’t the same signal triggered a similar upside reaction yet? The answer lies in how long-term holders were behaving.

Details

Speaking to BeInCrypto, Hunter Rogers, co-founder of the global Bitcoin yield protocol TeraHash, underlined how meaningful this metric is:

Long-Term Holders Step Back

This time, the cushion is thinner.

Since October 1, long-term holders have been selling. They finally stopped, but the buying has been modest. The recent peak (December 2025) in LTH accumulation sits near 4,862 BTC, and most days hover closer to 3,500 BTC. That’s barely 20% of the April strength.

Rogers expanded on how critical this group is for cycle survival:

“As long as long-term holders stay firm, the cycle survives. Continued long-term holder stability supports outcomes where Bitcoin remains in a reset phase and potentially works higher over time,” he mentioned.

So the stability exists. The aggression does not. And without aggression, rallies stall.

Whales Go Quiet, and That Changes Everything

Then there are the whales.