Bitcoin Price Prediction: Onchain Data Reveals Something Unusual – Whales Still Aren’t Taking Profits. What Do They Know?

What Happened

This low level of profit-taking indicates that long-term investors continue to hold rather than exit the market. “As long as realized profits remain positive and trending higher, the market can still extend its uptrend,” said Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Historically, a drop in realized profits has coincided with cycle peaks, as long-term holders begin reducing exposure.

Short-term investors have taken limited gains, averaging only 2%, compared with 8% margins often seen near market tops. Long-term holders, meanwhile, still have unrealized gains of around 129%, far below the 300% range that has previously marked overheated conditions.

Together, these signals point to continued accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting that investors view current levels as part of an ongoing growth phase rather than a topping point.

Still, the broader market structure remains bullish. As accumulation deepens, a sustained breakout above $130,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $135,000, extending its dominant uptrend into Q4. For investors eyeing long-term positions, any retracement near $121K–$122K may represent an ideal accumulation zone before the next leg higher.

Market Context

Bitcoin’s price is steady near $123,000, consolidating after briefly reaching $126,000 this week. Onchain data shows that large holders are still not selling, even as prices approach record highs. According to CryptoQuant, realized profits over the past 30 days stand at 0.26 million BTC (around $30 billion), almost 50% lower than July and well below the profit levels seen during the March and December 2024 rallies.

Market still stable: The data suggests ongoing accumulation rather than broad selling.

Overall, the data points to a steady market structure. With limited selling pressure and controlled profit-taking, Bitcoin’s rally appears supported by conviction rather than speculation.

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that long-term “OG” wallets, which are addresses holding Bitcoin for over ten years, have been largely inactive. Only 5,000 BTC were moved in the past month, about half the volume seen during the 2024 market peaks. This lack of movement, combined with low profit-taking, suggests that long-term holders are staying put, indicating a market top may still be some distance away.

Analysts note that realized profits, while modest, continue to trend upward every year, a pattern historically linked to steady price growth rather than exhaustion.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains in a well-defined ascending channel, supported by the 50- and 100-period SMAs at $122,000 and $116,700, respectively. Price action has consistently formed higher lows since mid-September, confirming buyers’ control.

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Why It Matters

JPMorgan analysts share a similar view, arguing that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold and could rise toward $165,000 if ETF inflows and demand for inflation-resistant assets persist.

Long-term holders inactive: Only 5,000 BTC moved this month, signaling low selling pressure.

Institutional outlook positive: JPMorgan sees potential upside toward $165,000.

However, a bearish butterfly pattern is developing, with a potential reversal zone (PRZ) between $128,000 and $130,000. RSI readings near 53 suggest stable momentum, but a bearish divergence could emerge if Bitcoin breaks above $126,200 without further RSI strength, a signal that short-term consolidation may follow.

A decisive breakout above $126,240 would open the path toward $130,000, completing the harmonic pattern and marking a likely short-term resistance zone. Failure to hold $122,000 could trigger a pullback toward $118,500, aligned with the channel’s lower boundary.

Details

Key insights from the latest data:

Profit-taking remains low: Realized gains are down roughly 50% since July.

Long-term holders are steady: Average unrealized gains are well below prior cycle extremes.

Onchain Patterns Point to Continued Accumulation

Key observations from current on-chain data:

Profit trend improving: Realized profits rising gradually year-on-year.

Bitcoin Technical Structure Supports a Push Toward $130K

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