Bitcoin Market Signals That Could Trigger A 2026 Breakout

What Happened

The Laser Digital investor note attributed the pattern largely to year-end tax harvesting in the US, noting that crypto has underperformed most global assets this year. The result has been steady American selling pressure offset by overseas accumulation.

Older, large-balance holders have been net sellers throughout 2025, taking advantage of deeper institutional liquidity. Earlier this year, Galaxy Digital facilitated the sale of 80,000 BTC from a single Satoshi-era investor. On-chain data shows addresses holding between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC have distributed hundreds of thousands of coins year-to-date.

Market Context

Bitcoin is entering the final stretch of the year in a paradoxical position. Institutional adoption has never been stronger, yet price action remains hesitant, weighed down by thin liquidity, legacy holder distribution, and uneven global flows.

As markets look ahead to 2026, the question is less about whether Bitcoin’s monetary case still holds and more about when price catches up to it.

Thin Liquidity Driving Short-Term Volatility

“With holiday conditions continuing to suppress liquidity, pockets of elevated spot volatility are arising, but are also unsurprising,” QCP analysts said.

The elevated spot volatility has been fueled by discretionary buying rather than forced positioning resets, the analysts said. QCP added that demand appears to be coming from spot and perpetual markets operating in thin conditions.

Part of the buying pressure appears to have come from Strategy, which revealed in a Monday filing that it purchased 1,229 Bitcoin last week for $108.8 million at an average price of $88,568 per coin.

Options Markets Signal Fragile Upside

QCP noted that traders who were previously long gamma ahead of expiry, helping keep prices range-bound, are now effectively short gamma to the upside. As prices rise, those participants are forced to buy spot Bitcoin or near-dated call options to hedge, reinforcing upside momentum.

Monday’s QCP Capital note points to aggressive buying in perpetuals and demand for Bitcoin call options. QCP said a sustained move above $94,000 could open the door to a more pronounced gamma-driven squeeze.

In addition, roughly 50% of open interest was wiped out following Friday’s record expiry, leaving a significant amount of capital sidelined. According to the QCP Capital note, as positioning rebuilds, volatility is likely to return, but direction remains uncertain.

However, what stood out was a clear divergence in time-zone performance. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell more than 3% during US trading hours, only to recover during Asian sessions.

Despite the lull in market activity, Messari analysts have highlighted how crypto is being integrated at the highest institutional levels. Stablecoin supply is at an all-time high, and regulators are openly discussing on-chain market infrastructure.

Why It Matters

On the downside, near-term risk hedging has eased. Put skew has declined after traders chose not to roll a large December $85,000 put position.

Details

Bitcoin is closing the year holding to familiar holiday dynamics rather than new fundamental catalysts.

Following the major options expiry on Friday, Bitcoin perpetual funding on Deribit jumped from near-flat levels to above 30%, reflecting a potentially optimistic shift in dealer exposure.

Asia Accumulates as the US Sells

That uncertainty is playing out unevenly across regions. Laser Digital described the past week as exhibiting the usual holiday lull.

“Yet it has almost never felt worse,” Messari’s end-of-year analyst note said, pointing to a growing disconnect between sentiment and reality.

Why Bitcoin Lagged in 2025

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and equities in late 2025 has raised doubts about its “digital gold” narrative. Gold is up over 60% year-to-date, equities are at record highs, and Bitcoin remains slightly negative.

Messari argues the weakness is not structural, but supply-driven.

At the same time, two major demand engines slowed. Digital Asset Treasury inflows weakened in October, and spot Bitcoin ETFs, previously consistent buyers, have turned into net sellers.