Bitcoin Has “Significant Upside” To $170K, Jpmorgan Tells Clients

What Happened

The bank’s strategists, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in a Wednesday report that crypto markets corrected nearly 20% from recent peaks following record liquidations in perpetual futures on October 10, the largest in crypto history, followed by smaller liquidations on November 3, triggered by the $128 million Balancer exploit.

Rising gold volatility has enhanced Bitcoin’s appeal to investors on a risk-adjusted basis, according to JPMorgan’s analysis.

This implies a theoretical price of around $170,000, to match the roughly $6.2 trillion in total private-sector investment in gold through ETFs and physical holdings.

Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster recently announced the $11.6 trillion firm will begin offering Bitcoin trading in the first half of 2026.

Wurster explained that most investors prefer exchange-traded products as “a safe and comfortable way for them to invest” rather than interacting directly with blockchain networks.

“We have lots of clients who have the vast majority of their assets at Schwab but are holding some at digitally native firms and keep asking us to launch this so they can bring their crypto assets to us,” he added.

Market Context

JPMorgan analysts see Bitcoin climbing to approximately $170,000 within six to twelve months as perpetual futures deleveraging appears complete and the crypto’s volatility ratio versus gold improves to more favorable levels.

The ratio of open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization fell from above-average levels back to historical norms within weeks, with similar patterns visible in Ethereum markets, though less pronounced there.

Their analysis points to perpetual futures as the critical barometer for current market conditions rather than traditional futures or ETF flows.

Gold Volatility Makes Bitcoin More Attractive

The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio drifted below 2.0, implying Bitcoin currently consumes about 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.

Based on this relationship, the analysts calculated that Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion would need to rise by nearly 67%.

Bitcoin currently trades about $68,000 below JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted fair value relative to gold.

Why It Matters

“Overall, we believe that perpetual futures are the most important instruments to watch in the current juncture, and the message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the analysts wrote.

The projection represents JPMorgan’s latest in a series of bullish forecasts, following similar analyses in October that estimated potential upside toward $165,000 by year-end and August projections of $126,000, a level Bitcoin surpassed when it reached an all-time high above $126,200 on October 6.

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Details

Bitcoin currently trades near $101,000, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin Deleveraging Phase Now Complete

Despite consecutive selloffs, JPMorgan analysts concluded that the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures has largely come to an end.

They added that while exchange-traded funds saw modest redemptions recently, these paled compared with inflows during the weeks ending October 3 and October 10.

The analysts also observed opposite dynamics in CME futures, where Ethereum experienced more liquidations than Bitcoin futures.

“This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6-12 months,” the analysts stated.

“We’re having a lot of success in the crypto space,” Wurster said in a CNBC interview. “Our clients actually own 20% of them and our clients are coming to our research site 90% more than they were last year.”

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