Bitcoin, Ether Struggle With Options Expiry Imminent: Crypto Daybook Americas

What Happened

Meanwhile, the most notable action continues to be in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks such as IREN (IREN). Bitcoin treasury companies, however, remain under pressure. KindlyMD (NAKA) is struggling at $1.17, just above its Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) pricing, and Metaplanet (3350) fell another 4% in Tokyo. The stock has dropped more than 70% from its all-time high, leaving it trading at a 1.24 multiple to net asset value (mNAV). This decline highlights how mNAVs have compressed across the broader market. Stay alert!

Market Context

Looking ahead, $17 billion worth of bitcoin options expire tomorrow, with a max pain price (the level at which option holders would experience the most financial loss) of $110,000. That is slightly below the current spot price of $112,000 and could provide short-term gravitational pull. For now, bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $110,000 and $116,000 until October.

Sept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL. MacroSept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation." Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing." Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled. Sept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation." Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing." Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.

Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation." Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing." Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled. Sept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation." Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing." Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.

Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%.

None scheduled. Sept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K. Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M. Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation." Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing." Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.

Why It Matters

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It's a new day, but the same story: Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling and ether (ETH) is trying to hold the $4,000 range. Crypto bulls can take some comfort in the fact that there is only one week left in September, a historically bearish month, and what's usually the strongest quarter is just around the corner.

Details

Sentiment within the industry remains subdued. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 45, which is neutral, but leaning slightly closer toward fear than greed. Part of the reason is bitcoin’s underperformance compared with traditional assets. In the past three months, bitcoin has added 7%, while the S&P 500 gained 9% and gold 12%.

What to Watch

Crypto

Macro

Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%.

Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K.

Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M.

Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on "Supervision and Regulation."

Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on "Bank Stress Testing."

Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Sept. 25, 8:00 a.m.: Plasma, a layer-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL.

Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%.