Bitcoin Bear Market Not Over, Benjamin Cowen Says Despite Recent Rally

What Happened

Cowen expects the current rally to peak within weeks before retracing toward the bull market support band, with a possible October low. For investors who exited near last year’s peak, his takeaway is direct.

Market Context

Bitcoin’s recent rally has not convinced Benjamin Cowen that the bear market is over. The Into the Cryptoverse founder warns the current move is likely to top within weeks before another decline, with a possible low arriving in October.

His thesis hinges on a pattern that repeated in 2014, 2018, and 2019, when Bitcoin climbed above key moving averages mid-bear market before resuming the downtrend. Time between cycle lows historically runs 140 to 174 days.

Bitcoin Bear Market Still Intact

It has also reclaimed the bull market support band. Cowen flagged another structural shift.

Retail interest never returned, and altcoins continued bleeding against Bitcoin throughout the rally. That apathetic peak could mean a different kind of bear market this time.

Past cycles offer the strongest case for staying defensive. In 2014, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin rallied above the bull market support band before pulling back, with the 200-day moving average serving as resistance.

The post Bitcoin Bear Market Not Over, Benjamin Cowen Says Despite Recent Rally appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Why It Matters

“I think this will likely yield a rally that finds a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down to those levels.”

Cowen acknowledged several reasons the bear case could be wrong. Bitcoin’s year-to-date return is currently outperforming the average midterm year by a wide margin. The token sits roughly 10% below its yearly open, compared with a typical decline of 30 to 35% at this stage.

Time between cycle lows is the other signal Cowen tracks. Recent cycles waited roughly 140 to 174 days before printing a new low.

Details

In a recent video, Cowen said he is keeping his “bear goggles on” despite Bitcoin’s continued strength. He argues the current playbook still tracks past cycles.

The Bullish Counterargument

“Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria.”

Why the Pattern Still Points Lower

“If I’m right, it will seem so obvious… If I’m wrong, then by the time you do something that’s different enough, you’re already well off the lows.”

“We’re currently on day 88. So, who’s to know what’ll happen in 3 months.”

“Anyone who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 when everyone else was screaming 300K is still doing fine.”