After Buying Circle Through A 42% Drop, Cathie Wood Says Analysts Cannot Fathom It

What Happened

Circle issues USDC, a digital dollar backed by cash and short-term US government debt. Wood runs ARK Invest, and Circle is now the biggest crypto bet in her flagship fund.

Market Context

Wood was replying to a chart built from Artemis data, where analyst Alex Obchakevich indicated that the market was changing its mind about who actually earns money on stablecoins.

Though CRCL has appreciated 84% since its IPO, this one-year chart illustrates the inefficiency of public equity markets in the short term. Many financial services analysts have built their long-term track records off of $V and $MA and cannot fathom Circle, the disrupter,” Wood challenged.

Both multiples survive a check. Mastercard priced its 2006 float at $39 a share. It later split its stock 10 ways, so that entry is worth $3.90 in today’s money. Against Friday’s close of $580.63, that is 149 times.

Her Circle figure is not. Circle priced its June 2025 float at $31. The stock closed Friday at $87.98. That is a gain of about 184%, not 84%.

Their price targets are stranger still. The most bullish is $173. The most bearish is $37. That is a 4.7-fold gap on the same company on the same day. The average sits at $98.61.

The accounts show that split. Revenue grew about 37% and the company is profitable after a Q2 earnings surprise in early August. Its market value still fell 30%.

Why It Matters

Wood is not hedging. ARK’s flagship fund held 3,931,968 Circle shares on Friday, worth $329 million and 5.14% of the portfolio. That beats its Coinbase stake. She may be proved right. For now her money says what the $37 and $243 targets say. Nobody has settled what Circle is.

Details

Cathie Wood has kept buying Circle as the stock fell 42% in a year. On Sunday she said why. Wall Street analysts who built their careers on Visa and Mastercard, she argued, cannot understand the company.

Wood’s Case Against the Analysts

It tracked the three payment firms over a year. Visa was up about 5%, Mastercard about 1%. Circle was down 42%.

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She then reached for history. Mastercard is up roughly 150 times since it listed, she said, and Visa roughly 33 times.

Analysts who told clients to buy those dips looked brilliant. Technology, not analyst skill, is now rewriting payments, and Circle should gain.

Her History Lesson Holds Up, But One Number Does Not

Visa sold shares at $44 in March 2008 and split them four ways in 2015, an adjusted $11. At $371.04 on Friday, that is 34 times. Wood’s arithmetic is sound.

Wall Street Cannot Agree What Circle Is Worth

The sell side is not ignoring Circle, which weakens her framing. Of 21 analysts covering it, 11 call it a strong buy and two a buy. Five say hold. Three say sell.

Analysts covering a mature payment network do not disagree by that much. On Circle they have no shared method. Much of its money comes from interest on reserves, which shrinks when rates fall. The rest rides on how fast digital dollars get used.

Competition muddies it further. Circle is building a four-layer financial stack on its Arc blockchain. Open USD, a rival stablecoin consortium of more than 140 firms, wants the same rails.

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