A Memory Shortage Until 2030? Why Semiconductor Stocks Are Rallying Again

What Happened

SK Hynix Sees Memory Demand Outpacing Supply Until 2030

SK Hynix posted record third-quarter revenue of 104.6 trillion won ($78.9 billion), up 328% year over year. Operating profit jumped 632% to 83.3 trillion won, beating consensus estimates.

Elon Musk added to the bullish narrative on October 26, arguing that robots will drive memory demand.

Market Context

The gains came as Nvidia and Apple slipped. Both memory stocks fell more than 3% in premarket trading on Thursday, with SanDisk earnings due after the close.

Management expects demand to outpace supply through 2030. More than half of its 2027 and 2028 capacity is already committed under long-term agreements. That outlook challenges recent fears that the memory cycle could peak in 2028.

Robotics demand remains a long-term story. However, in the nearer term, TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter, with DRAM up 10% to 15%.

The rally cooled on Thursday. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported quarterly capital spending below analyst estimates, while Samsung’s chip profit missed forecasts.

Volume is contracting, which suggests a compression phase. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to the neutral zone and sits near 45.

MU briefly broke below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $894.58 before reclaiming it with Wednesday’s gain. Volume is also testing a descending trendline that has capped activity since late June.

Why It Matters

Semiconductor stocks Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) rallied on Wednesday, rising 5.86% and 7.66%, respectively. SK Hynix sparked the move by forecasting that memory demand could outpace supply through 2030.

SNDK trended lower for several weeks during the broader chip selloff before reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1,244.58. The level aligns with a demand zone that also held in May and early August.

Wednesday’s bounce now targets the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1,456. A break above it could open a retest of the 0.382 level at $1,668, where sellers have repeatedly stepped in.

Earnings could decide the next move. Analysts expect about $10.64 billion in revenue and earnings per share (EPS) near $46. Options imply a move of roughly 9.9% in either direction.

A break above $1,000 and the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1,032 could confirm the recovery. Losing $894 again, however, could send MU toward the 0.5 level at $783.

Because Micron tends to track its memory peers closely, SanDisk’s results could set the tone for both stocks.

Details

SanDisk Stock Bounces From Key Support Before Earnings

A daily close below $1,244 would weaken the setup and expose the 0.786 level near $943.

Micron Shows the Strongest Chart Among Semiconductor Stocks

The stock printed its first lower low since July, though that followed a higher high on October 2. The RSI has climbed to about 53, above the midline.

Micron’s correction from its June peak reached roughly 32%, compared with about 48% for SanDisk. That shallower pullback leaves MU with the firmer structure.

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