4 Us Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin In The President’s Day Holiday Week

What Happened

US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week

Traders are focused on four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.

FOMC Minutes

Market Context

Bitcoin is entering a pivotal macro week as it hovers near $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a volatile start to the year, including a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets remain highly sensitive to US economic data.

Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than usual, a factor that could amplify volatility once major data begins midweek.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing just 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.

The release of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will likely set the week’s tone.

A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside risks could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations. Historically, similar signals have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks within 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.

In holiday-thinned trading conditions, even subtle dovish cues may be enough to push Bitcoin toward $70,000.

Thursday’s jobless claims report offers a real-time snapshot of labor market health, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.

A reading below 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and reduce the likelihood of near-term easing. That outcome could pressure Bitcoin 1–3% lower as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.

A downside surprise below 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and potentially boost Bitcoin 3–6% as markets price in earlier policy relief. Softer consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, would be closely watched.

However, a print above 2.7% could complicate the outlook. Strong growth may delay easing, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.

Why It Matters

In this environment, even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its last meeting, signaling caution amid resilient growth and persistent services inflation.

FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debates, particularly around inflation risks, labor strength, and tariff-related pressures.

Conversely, any language suggesting balanced risks or growing concern over slowing growth could revive rate-cut speculation.

Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 previously.

On the other hand, claims above 230,000 would raise concerns about softening employment conditions. In past cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted risk assets on the assumption that the Fed may pivot sooner. Such a scenario could lift Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets increase.

With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this release may serve as a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed insight and Friday’s inflation data.

Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision is expected to show +2.5% annualized growth, a significant step down from the initial +4.4% estimate.

Details

Initial Jobless Claims

Q4 2025 GDP (Final Revision)

Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities during major macro releases. Strong growth combined with persistent inflation has historically triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.