4 Us Economic Events That Could Move Bitcoin In The Final Week Of February

What Happened

Bitcoin enters the final week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US economic events) once again dictating short-term direction.

4 US Economic Events That Traders Are Watching Closely

Fed Officials Take the Stage

Market Context

After last week’s mixed signals, including moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets remain undecided on the pace of rate cuts ahead of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting.

With rate expectations finely balanced, this week’s economic calendar could inject fresh volatility into crypto markets.

With markets currently pricing in two to three cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone could quickly shift rate expectations.

Clustered appearances also increase the risk of intraday swings, particularly if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin traders, tone, not policy action, may be the key volatility trigger this week.

Last week’s PCE data showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core at 3.0%, reflecting lingering price pressures.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain one of the timeliest indicators of the labor market. Last week’s drop to 206,000 surprised to the downside, reinforcing a tight employment backdrop that has kept the Fed cautious about easing prematurely. Consensus now expects 215,000.

That scenario could lift yields and modestly pressure Bitcoin. Strong employment data tends to delay rate cut expectations, reducing liquidity support for risk assets.

Why It Matters

If they reiterate concerns about “last-mile” disinflation or signal patience on cuts, Treasury yields could rise alongside the US dollar. Such an outcome could pressure Bitcoin and potentially push it lower.

Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing growth or labor softening could weaken the dollar and spark a relief rally in risk assets.

The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Index follows January’s weak 84.5 reading, well below expectations and historically consistent with recessionary signals.

A stronger-than-expected confidence print, particularly above 90, would reinforce a resilient consumer narrative and strengthen the “no-landing” thesis.

That could reduce near-term rate cut expectations, lift the dollar, and weigh modestly on Bitcoin.

On the other hand, a downside surprise below 85 would highlight economic fragility. That outcome would likely boost rate-cut odds, which are currently elevated for March, and provide tailwinds for BTC.

If claims fall below 210,000, it would signal ongoing labor strength and potentially embolden hawkish Fed voices.

Details

A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday through Wednesday, featuring Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.

Historically, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance against inflation and data dependence.

Consumer Confidence

February is projected to improve modestly to 87.5, though sentiment remains subdued amid elevated living costs and persistent inflation.

Historically, confidence surprises have triggered 1–2% moves in Bitcoin, particularly when aligned with broader macro trends.

Initial Jobless Claims

Conversely, a spike above 225,000 would raise concerns about labor cooling, particularly if paired with softer business surveys.