by Coinstrooper Crypto Articles
Quick Take
  • Bitcoin (BTC) fell to about $80,300 as more than $1 billion in leveraged bets were wiped out in a day.
  • Three fears are hitting at the same time, and each one is tied to a date or a person.
  • Trader Unipcs, known on X as “Bonk Guy,” argues that those same triggers could flip into buy signals once their dates pass.
  • The total crypto market cap has dropped 4.4% in 24 hours to $2.77 trillion.

What Happened

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to about $80,300 as more than $1 billion in leveraged bets were wiped out in a day. Three fears are hitting at the same time, and each one is tied to a date or a person.

1. The 4-year cycle says the low is due now

The December 2017 peak bottomed 365 days later. The November 2021 peak bottomed 378 days later. Applied to this cycle, that window falls in October 2026.

Market Context

Trader Unipcs, known on X as “Bonk Guy,” argues that those same triggers could flip into buy signals once their dates pass. The total crypto market cap has dropped 4.4% in 24 hours to $2.77 trillion.

Why Is the Crypto Market Selling Off So Hard?

Bitcoin peaked near $126,080 on October 6, 2025, according to CoinGecko. In past cycles, the bear market bottom came roughly a year after the top.

Why It Matters

Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warned that AI could help attackers work out private keys from public keys that wallets have already exposed. In a worst case, he said, that could happen within months.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin added that AI-driven math could weaken ECDSA, the signature scheme that secures Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets. He also urged calm.

“I don’t recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography.,” Vitalik said on X.

What Could Turn This Crypto Selloff Around?

Once the cycle-low window closes in mid-to-late October, traders who were waiting for that date may start buying.

Some analysts say the low is already in. Bitcoin bottomed at $58,525 on June 30, and Galaxy’s Alex Thorn flagged a 50-week moving average signal in September.

Details

Analyst Benjamin Cowen had also pointed to an October bottom, then admitted his call failed in September. Even so, many cycle traders are holding off on buying until the date passes.

2. The 10/10 anniversary lands this Saturday

On October 10, 2025, a tariff shock forced out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions across over 1.6 million accounts, according to CoinGecko data.

Traders fear a repeat. On Thursday, more than $600 million was liquidated within an hour, the biggest hourly total in a month.

Leverage looks lighter this time, though. One analysis of a 10/10 repeat found that liquidations now run about $248 million per 1% drop. On 10/10, the figure was close to $2.2 billion.

3. AI is reviving cryptography fears

Drake urged holders to move to unused addresses rather than panic. Glassnode estimates that about 6.04 million BTC already sits behind visible public keys.

1. Q4 seasonality

Since 2013, Bitcoin has gained in eight of 13 fourth quarters, with a median return of 26%, according to Coinglass data.

Post-peak years broke that pattern, though. The fourth quarter fell 16% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 15% in 2022.

2. Cycle believers buying back in

3. 10/10 fears fade if nothing breaks