Why Brent Oil Just Snapped Back Above $105

What Happened

Brent oil jumped nearly 5% to about $105 per barrel on Thursday, its highest level in almost a month. Reports that Washington is preparing renewed strikes on Iran drove the rally.

Pentagon Strike Preparations Revive the War Premium

According to Axios, the Pentagon ordered US Central Command to finalize preparations for renewed large-scale combat operations against Iran. Possible targets include nuclear, energy, and infrastructure sites.

Market Context

The move reverses a slide that briefly pushed Brent below $100 earlier this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also climbed above $91, according to Trading Economics.

The report followed an article in The Atlantic saying the White House had asked the Pentagon for pre-midterm strike options. Officials reportedly warned such strikes could send oil prices sharply higher.

“The market continues to price tightness, supply fragility and geopolitical risk.”

With diesel supplies already tight, BeInCrypto previously examined whether Hormuz still drives US fuel prices.

Brent Oil Price Analysis Points to $109

If the breakout holds, Brent could target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $108.94, about 3.5% above current prices. September’s swing high near $110 sits just above it.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump has not made a final decision. However, US and Israeli sources suggested strikes could come before Israel’s Oct. 27 election and the Nov. 3 US midterms.

That equals roughly a quarter of the region’s crude output. Forecasters expect the storm to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

A confirmed strike on Iranian energy sites could accelerate the move toward $109. A diplomatic breakthrough, by contrast, may send Brent back to test its trendline.

Details

Attacks at sea are also rising. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker hit by multiple projectiles about 59 miles off Qatar on Wednesday, the ninth attack in the region this month.

Until this week, oil had been easing as Gulf exports recovered and the G7 agreed to an emergency reserve release. Even political turmoil in Tehran failed to stop Tuesday’s decline.

Citigroup analysts, including Eric Lee, wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg.

Hurricane Isaias and Falling Stockpiles Add Pressure

Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, forced US Gulf of Mexico producers to shut in more than 510,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories fell by about 3.2 million barrels last week. That was the largest weekly draw in five weeks.

On the daily chart, Brent has reclaimed the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $100.64. The retracement runs from the March high of $119.50 to the July low of $70.14.

Brent also bounced from an ascending trendline drawn from the July low.

Buyers have defended this trendline three times, in early August, late August, and on Sept. 30.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to about 60 after retesting the neutral 50 zone in late September.

A daily close back below $100.64 would weaken the bullish setup. In that case, the trendline near $98 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $94.82 come into focus.

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