Standard Chartered Declares Crypto Winter Over, And Three Of Four Metrics Agree

What Happened

The second is structural. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the regulated products that hold Bitcoin for investors, saw heavy selling into the SpaceX IPO. Kendrick points to holders selling ETF shares to free cash for the listing. With SpaceX now trading, that drain looks finished.

Market Context

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, thinks the crypto winter is behind us. His view is that the market has already seen its cycle low, which he placed at the $59,000 Bitcoin touched on June 5.

“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle,” he said.

The first is macro. A G7-linked US-Iran peace deal, if it holds, would cap oil and the US Treasury yields that weigh on risk assets. Brent crude even slid toward $80 as deal talk spread, loosening that pressure. Bitcoin has since recovered to about $66,000.

The leverage metric agrees with Kendrick. Average funding, the cost traders pay to hold leveraged positions, sits at negative 3.9%, meaning the market pays you to be long.

That is classic capitulation. Open interest, the total size of futures bets, collapsed and has only just turned up. Together, that shows excess leverage has been flushed, the condition that lets a recovery begin.

The sentiment metric, the second metric, leans the same way. The Fear and Greed Index, which blends volatility and crowd mood into one number from zero to 100, reads near 20, deep in extreme fear. That level clusters near market lows. As the indicator frames it, maximum pessimism has often marked maximum opportunity, which fits Kendrick’s view that the worst is behind.

Both describe a market that has stopped breaking down and is starting to steady.

Kendrick’s buying confirmation has now landed, and this is the third metric in his favor. He wanted fresh Bitcoin buying from Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, after its small 32-BTC sale unsettled the market.

The fourth metric is the one that does not yet agree. The Mayer Multiple, current price divided by the 200-day average, sits at 0.85. That is below the neutral 1.0 but above the 0.8 that marks deep winter, so the market is cheap without being washed out. But it is worth noting that the Mayer Multiple is very close to the neutral mark.

The drawdown reads the same. Bitcoin is down 46.9% from its high, shallower than the 75% to 85% falls that ended past crypto winters. A milder decline can point to a higher floor, though it can also mean the deepest capitulation never came.

Why It Matters

His call drew wide coverage, but fewer looked at where the data stands. BeInCrypto scored it against four crypto winter metrics, and three of them already back him. The one that holds out marginally, and that could be the most important one to watch.

Details

The BTC Cycle Low Call and the Catalysts Behind It

That $59,000 low marked a 53% drop from Bitcoin’s $126,000 record in October 2025. Kendrick mentioned:

He also added:

“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring.”

His reasoning rests on two pressures easing.

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Leverage and Sentiment Back the Call

The Bitcoin Buying That Confirms the Turn

The firm has bought in back-to-back weeks since. On June 15, it disclosed a 1,587 BTC purchase for $100 million at an average of $63,024, lifting its treasury to 846,842 BTC worth roughly $56 billion. That followed a 1,550 BTC buy the week before.

The institutional flows confirmed the other half of the buying thesis. After June 5 saw $325 million leave spot Bitcoin ETFs, inflows returned with $85.85 million on June 12 and again on June 15.

That breaks the outflow streak Kendrick wanted ended.

The Valuation Reading That Holds Out