One Silver Stock Got A 80% Upside Call Despite The Metal Dropping 50%: Here’s Why

What Happened

Analysts Kept Raising Targets as Silver Fell

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H.C. Wainwright’s Heiko Ihle raised his target to $27 from $26 on July 31, the exact day the stock closed at its low of $15.03. That marked an implied 80% gain, and even after the stock climbed to around $17.50 this week, about 54% still remains.

Market Context

Silver has crashed about 50% from its January record, yet First Majestic Silver (AG) just posted record revenue, record cash and a bigger dividend. A five-star analyst thinks the stock is worth far more, and his case never mentions the silver price.

The gap comes down to timing. Miners sell into the quarter’s average price, so First Majestic banked cash at levels set before the crash, even as the metal fell through the period.

When silver hit a record near $121.62 an ounce on January 29, it looked unstoppable. It then tumbled about 50% into the summer, an ordinary bear market after a parabola.

Analysts went the other way on First Majestic. Over that same stretch they lifted their price targets on the stock from $22 to $27, even as it set a fresh 2026 low.

Ihle priced the business, not the metal. So did most of his peers, even as Scotiabank held a neutral rating at $22.50 within a day of a BMO buy call at $24.87.

The stock fell about 45% from its February peak while these numbers went to records. This is because the market priced it off the falling metal rather than the rising cash.

Options traders are leaning into the silver breakout too. First Majestic’s put-call ratio by volume, which weighs bearish bets against bullish ones, has dropped to 0.22 from about 0.96 around the July earnings, a clear swing toward calls.

Yet implied volatility sits low in its own range, so those bets are not paying up for a big move.

The bull case still has holes. Despite the records, adjusted earnings of about $0.21 a share missed the roughly $0.26 analysts expected. Additionally, the rival Hecla (HL) just booked realized prices falling from the prior quarter. The lag that flattered First Majestic is a year-over-year effect, and it is already fading.

Even so, the backdrop favors the metal. The Silver Institute forecasts a record supply deficit in 2026, the sixth straight. Because miners book the quarter’s average price, silver’s late-July rebound feeds straight into third-quarter realized prices, so the cash can keep flowing if silver holds its gains. The first read comes when Pan American Silver (PAAS), another big silver miner reports on August 12.

Why It Matters

The Catches That Could Unwind this Silver Stock

The nearer risk is macro. Wednesday’s rally ran on rate-cut bets after private payrolls grew just 44,000 in July against 70,000 expected. Therefore, Friday’s jobs report, where economists expect 80,000, is the real test.

Details

Record Cash in the Middle of the Crash

First Majestic’s second quarter, reported July 30, set records on almost every line. Revenue reached $415.5 million, more than 50% above a year earlier, and adjusted profit, a measure known as EBITDA, more than doubled to $257.1 million.

Free cash flow hit $194.6 million, the treasury grew to a record $1.25 billion, and the company raised its dividend 217%.

The paradox is the point.

Why the Miners Move More Than the Metal

Silver miners carry operating leverage. Their all-in sustaining cost, or AISC, is broadly fixed in the short run, so a move in the metal lands almost entirely in profit.

That works both ways, which is why these stocks fell harder than silver on the way down. It also explains Wednesday. Silver rose about 4%, while the silver miners ETF (SIL) gained 6.6% and First Majestic added 6.8% as the metal pushed back above $61 an ounce.

A hot number would pull those bets back and unwind much of the move.

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