Moderna Slides Up To 25% As Cancer Vaccine Meets Sky-High Expectations
- Moderna (MRNA) shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday, despite positive cancer vaccine data.
- The shot cut melanoma recurrence or death risk by 42% in certain patients.
- Even after the drop, the stock was up more than 530% for 2026 as of Thursday afternoon, CNBC reported.
- Merck, a much larger drugmaker, slipped about 1% and is up nearly 41% this year.
What Happened
Personalized vaccines also depend on tumor sequencing, a niche BeInCrypto has covered as a diagnostics investment opportunity.
The next test for the sector is whether personalized medicine can be made fast enough to meet investor expectations.
Market Context
BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said the selloff likely reflects outsized hopes going into the release. He did not read it as a verdict on whether the combination works.
Why It Matters
Moderna (MRNA) shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday, despite positive cancer vaccine data. The shot cut melanoma recurrence or death risk by 42% in certain patients.
Meanwhile, UBS analysts called the results strong, adding that expectations may explain the reaction.
About 82% of patients on the combination were alive without recurrence at two years, versus 70% on Keytruda alone. The combination also cut the risk of distant spread or death by 38%.
Success there could give Moderna a commercial product beyond its Covid-19, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines.
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Details
Partial data leaked before the full release. Even after the drop, the stock was up more than 530% for 2026 as of Thursday afternoon, CNBC reported.
How High Had the Bar Been Set for the Cancer Vaccine?
Merck, a much larger drugmaker, slipped about 1% and is up nearly 41% this year. In contrast, Moderna’s 2026 stock rally tops 530%.
Intismeran autogene is a personalized shot aimed at mutations in an individual’s tumor. It is paired with Keytruda, Merck’s immunotherapy.
Can One Melanoma Win Justify the Rest of the Rally?
However, the trial covered only one tumor type. Dean Li, president of Merck Research Laboratories, acknowledged more work is needed to prove the shot across cancers.
The companies are testing it in other tumors, including lung, bladder, and kidney cancers.
Manufacturing is the catch, because each personalized dose can take six weeks to produce.
Still, Merck CEO Robert Davis told CNBC the company believes it can cut that wait, which would reach patients faster.
For now, the companies say it is too early to judge overall survival. Full phase 3 results are set for the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference this weekend.