Elon Musk And Morgan Stanley’s Spacex Predictions Are 7 Years Apart

What Happened

Morgan Stanley shared its SpaceX model with large investors days before the June listing. That model reached roughly $330 billion in 2030 and $3.4 trillion in 2040.

Launch is smaller than most people assume. Space revenue came in at $962 million for the quarter. The AI unit is the real bet. It grew 247% to $2.56 billion.

Market Context

Follow the money and the priority is obvious, that of $18.4 billion in second-quarter capital spending, $15.8 billion went to AI.

SpaceX puts its addressable AI market at $26.5 trillion of a $28.5 trillion total. That estimate rests on internal assumptions and outside research, and the company says it may prove wrong.

SpaceX Stock Prices a Bull Case, Not Musk’s Fastest Case

Why It Matters

Elon Musk says SpaceX could reach about $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033. Morgan Stanley’s model does not get there until 2040.

Where Musk’s SpaceX Revenue Forecast Splits From the Street

Details

His estimate beats the bank by seven years and lands slightly higher. SpaceX stock trades near $141, about 38% below its June peak.

Elon Musk’s figure is larger and arrives sooner, while at the same time extending his earlier $1 trillion projection for 2030.

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Notably, SpaceX has never published a revenue target in any filing. The IPO prospectus carries no forward guidance. Neither does the second-quarter report. The number is Musk personally, not the company.

“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw [for what it’s worth],” Musk wrote.

Because trillions are hard to picture, let’s use a benchmark. Amazon is the world’s largest company by revenue and earned $716.9 billion in 2025. Musk’s target is nearly five times that. It is also 187 times the $18.67 billion SpaceX booked in 2025.

Clearing it means growing about 92% every year for eight straight years. Is that even possible?

Only Orbital AI Can Plausibly Produce Multi-Trillion Sales

Starlink pays the bills today, and subscribers doubled to 12 million last quarter. Even so, average revenue per user slipped to $66 from $85.

The 2025 accounts show the same trade, where Starlink produced $4.42 billion in operating profit while the AI unit lost $6.36 billion.

Hardware is starting to follow the money, after SpaceX signed an orbital compute payload deal with Nvidia. It is also building a $100 billion Louisiana spaceport to lift flight rates.

The prospectus targets AI compute satellites in orbit as early as 2028.

SPCX last closed at $140.87, valuing SpaceX near $1.91 trillion. That sits about 38% under the $225.61 high set days after the debut.

Analysts are positive, but not this positive. Thirty-five firms average a $232.35 target, implying roughly 57% upside.

None of that approaches $3.5 trillion. JPMorgan’s $240 target leans on Grok and Cursor rather than rockets.

History argues for patience. Internal SpaceX documents once projected more than $30 billion in Starlink revenue by 2025.

Connectivity actually delivered $11.39 billion. That is close to a third of the plan.