Can The S&P 500 Hold Above 7,000 After Spacex’s Largest Ipo In History

What Happened

Demand reached extreme levels, as order books closed more than three times oversubscribed. Retail investors took close to 30% of the allocation, roughly triple the norm for mega cap listings.

Market Context

The S&P 500 (SPX) index trades near 7,421 after SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history. The index is correcting from its record high of 7,620.90 as the $75 billion debut absorbs liquidity.

Largest IPO in History Tests Stock Market Liquidity

SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under the SPCX ticker on Friday, June 12. The $75 billion raise more than doubled Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion record from 2019. Its $1.77 trillion valuation places it among the 10 largest listed companies worldwide.

In contrast, Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers may be forced to buy $22 to $27 billion of the stock. These flows could also affect Bitcoin (BTC), which often reacts to shifts in equity liquidity.

Price also moves inside an ascending channel that has guided the trend since the April 2025 bottom. The recent rejection at 7,620.90 suggests a retest of 7,000 and the lower channel band. After that, the structure may support renewed upside in Q4 2026.

SPX Price Prediction Puts the 7,000 Support in Focus

The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) already prints near extreme red readings. Similar spikes accompanied the April bottom at 6,316.86, so volatility may be close to peaking.

Musk’s lock-up terms add another variable for the months ahead. SpaceX’s largest IPO in history supplies the liquidity catalyst that may decide which level breaks first.

Why It Matters

Moreover, BNP Paribas estimates total retail and passive inflows into SPCX could reach $50 billion.

Much of that money may rotate out of crowded technology positions. The pressure has already contributed to a losing week for the index.

Therefore, holding 7,000 could set up a Q4 2026 push above 7,620.90, roughly 3% above current levels. In contrast, a daily close below 6,968 would invalidate the setup and expose the 0.618 retracement at 6,814.66.

Details

SpaceX (SPCX) sold 555.56 million shares at $135 each, valuing the company at nearly $1.77 trillion. Traders now watch whether the index can defend support just below 7,000.

Meanwhile, S&P Dow Jones Indices kept its eligibility rules unchanged in early June. As a result, SPCX cannot join the S&P 500 for at least 12 months.

SPX Weekly Chart Keeps the Long-Term Uptrend Intact

On the weekly timeframe, the index keeps printing higher highs and higher lows. The highs progressed from 4,818 to 6,147.43, then to the current 7,620.90. Meanwhile, the lows climbed from 3,492 to 4,103.78, then to 4,835.04, and finally to 6,316.91.

Three long-term support zones stand out on the chart. The historical area sits near 4,835, while a second zone spans 6,250 to 6,300. However, the most important level right now rests just below 7,000.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds just below 70, indicating bullish momentum without an overbought extreme.

The daily chart shows the correction from the record high in detail. The index bounced from the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA), which acted as support. However, the 21-day EMA is now acting as resistance to the recovery.

If selling resumes, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 7,122.20 should serve as first support. The next zone sits at the 0.5 Fib retracement near 6,968, in confluence with the weekly support. A retest of that area would mark an 8.6% correction from the all-time high.

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