Bitcoin’s Supply-In-Loss Hits An All-Time High: Why That Might Not Mean A Bottom?

What Happened

A Record Number of Bitcoin Held at a Loss

Glassnode data shows Total Supply in Loss reached 10,694,567 BTC on June 25, the highest figure on record.

High readings tend to appear after deep selloffs, when many holders sit underwater. That stress can also mark the point where sellers run out of supply.

Market Context

Bitcoin’s Total Supply in Loss has climbed to a record 10.7 million coins, even as a sharp drop in oil prices revives hope that cooling inflation could keep the Fed from hiking and let BTC hold $60,000.

The on-chain reading marks the most coins ever held at a loss. Two earlier peaks this cycle landed close to local price bottoms, so traders are watching whether the pattern repeats.

The metric counts every coin whose last move happened at a higher price than today.

Whether that floor holds, however, may hinge less on the chart and more on a macro shift now playing out in the oil market.

Energy did most of the damage in the latest inflation report. May CPI rose 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three years, as energy prices jumped 3.9% on the month.

Core inflation stayed calmer at 2.9%, which suggests the spike was an energy shock rather than broad price pressure. Core goods even fell on the month, a sign tariff pass-through had faded. Cheaper crude now points the other way. That relief, however, may take far longer to reach the inflation data than the drop at the pump suggests.

Direct effects on headline prices show up within two to three months, while the pass-through into core prices builds slowly over about eight quarters. So June and July prints could stay hot even as crude falls.

That gap matters for the trade. The relief from cheaper oil is real, but it may not reach official inflation data for months, which keeps the Fed cautious for now. Markets have still started to relax. On Polymarket, the odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike eased to 53% from 66% on June 20.

CME futures had recently priced a November hike near a coin flip. The Fed left its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, citing sticky inflation and a firm labor market.

Why It Matters

The Bitcoin supply in loss signal has tracked turning points before. In early February, the metric spiked near 9.9 million coins as BTC carved out a local bottom. In November, another peak preceded a rebound from around $85,143.

Analysts have flagged similar rare bottom signals flashing earlier this cycle. None of these readings guarantees a low, but the clustering near past bottoms keeps the metric in focus.

The slide came as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased and a US license cleared some Iranian crude transactions. JPMorgan cut its Brent forecast to $80 for the fourth quarter and $64 next year.

That backdrop has fed a live four-year cycle debate about whether Bitcoin is bottoming or breaking down. Any further drop in inflation expectations would remove a major weight on risk assets.

Details

Why Falling Oil Matters for Inflation

Brent crude has fallen close to 27% over the past month to about $74 a barrel. WTI trades near $70 after briefly dipping below that mark.

Energy costs were up 23.5% over 12 months, tied to the supply shock from the Iran conflict and the Hormuz disruption. That single category did the heavy lifting.

The Lag That Complicates the Bull Case

Lower oil does not cool inflation right away. Research shows gasoline shocks drive about 65% of headline CPI swings but only 10% of core moves.

Bitcoin, Gold, and the $60,000 Test

Bitcoin trades below $60,000, near $59,400, after slipping on the day. The record supply-in-loss reading now sits right at that closely watched floor.

Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold stands at 0.364, a moderately positive level. Such links tend to strengthen during macro shocks as buyers rotate into safe havens.